{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a6d74a9-dce5-4dc2-b9e7-d65d38a26786", "symbol": "MBBC", "name": "Marathon Bancorp, Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.391, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.35, "architecture_energy": 20.268, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.611, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.89, "rotation_up": 34.07, "upward_expansion": 60.62, "deceleration": 84.3, "rotation_down": 22.66, "downward_expansion": 12.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.973333, 15.024909, 14.791363, 14.562061 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.1, "trend_reference": 14.199873, "distance_from_trend": 0.06339, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.38985, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.608119, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.436386, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.098182, "excess_performance": -0.089272, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06339, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087646, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.608119, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140662, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.034364, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060733, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.098182, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.266866, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2566, "relative_activity": 0.046346, "balance": 0.266866, "dry_up": 0.085995, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068031, "annualized_volatility": 0.272941, "from_high_reference": -0.043699, "from_low_reference": 0.506986 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.199873, "fair_value_reference": 9.38985, "structural_low": 12.795, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.020787, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.005378, "regime_survival": 0.88, "best_return": 0.226226, "worst_return": -0.058824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.003332, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.030784, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.459854, "worst_return": -0.236111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.064285, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.172604, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.432088, "worst_return": -0.123932, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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44.560935, "activity_lines": [ 15.181333, 14.920544, 14.657928, 14.387112 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.71, "volume": 2999, "typical_volume": 55948.0, "trend": 14.012873, "fair_value": 9.293002, "relative_strength": 7.181225, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.138663, "energy": 27.933443, "activity_lines": [ 15.003333, 14.929271, 14.686375, 14.437399 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.95, "volume": 5415, "typical_volume": 55691.45, "trend": 14.104873, "fair_value": 9.340945, "relative_strength": 7.97227, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.001886, "energy": 20.606085, "activity_lines": [ 14.945333, 14.977816, 14.734298, 14.497859 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.1, "volume": 2566, "typical_volume": 55366.6, "trend": 14.199873, "fair_value": 9.38985, "relative_strength": 3.436386, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.350497, "energy": 20.26808, "activity_lines": [ 14.973333, 15.024909, 14.791363, 14.562061 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }