{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a6da89c-806e-4032-b6de-19370409e846", "symbol": "000789", "name": "Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.996, "architecture_energy": 52.432, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 68.545, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.93, "rotation_up": 27.58, "upward_expansion": 21.54, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 45.56, "downward_expansion": 71.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.998667, 3.994996, 4.19221, 4.461324 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.06, "trend_reference": 4.802872, "distance_from_trend": -0.154672, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.540336, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.267193, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.430333, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.25777, "excess_performance": -0.265169, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.154672, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094603, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.267193, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083795, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.254303, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057312, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25777, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.387276, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20081740, "relative_activity": 0.921107, "balance": 0.387276, "dry_up": 1.111499, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056729, "annualized_volatility": 0.244676, "from_high_reference": -0.361635, "from_low_reference": 0.07124 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.802872, "fair_value_reference": 5.540336, "structural_low": 3.79, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.019058, "positive_rate": 0.323529, "directional_follow_through": 0.676471, "median_excess_return": -0.008276, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.264977, "worst_return": -0.145009, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.047721, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.042039, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.239278, "worst_return": -0.222957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.14064, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.079216, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.066372, "worst_return": -0.328685, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.02, "volume": 24893720, "typical_volume": 24203843.4, "trend": 4.937872, "fair_value": 5.609566, "relative_strength": -25.871228, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.268797, "energy": 84.653332, "activity_lines": [ 3.955333, 4.067096, 4.36344, 4.635879 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.83, "volume": 22609916, "typical_volume": 23517973.1, "trend": 4.885872, "fair_value": 5.585915, "relative_strength": -28.826833, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.023279, "energy": 70.31494, "activity_lines": [ 3.908667, 4.003072, 4.282744, 4.564404 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.07, "volume": 29345063, "typical_volume": 23164725.1, "trend": 4.841872, "fair_value": 5.563619, "relative_strength": -22.285755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.875107, "energy": 63.131339, "activity_lines": [ 3.960667, 3.996756, 4.233953, 4.511767 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.06, "volume": 20081740, "typical_volume": 21801737.9, "trend": 4.802872, "fair_value": 5.540336, "relative_strength": -25.430333, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.996023, "energy": 52.431656, "activity_lines": [ 3.998667, 3.994996, 4.19221, 4.461324 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }