{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a6f5154-d38b-4841-bf49-a1f8d81984f7", "symbol": "VVV3", "name": "\u00d6koworld AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 74.041, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.85, "architecture_energy": 28.574, "architecture_maturity": 41.785, "architecture_confidence": 57.805, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.78, "rotation_up": 14.34, "upward_expansion": 15.52, "deceleration": 67.54, "rotation_down": 63.71, "downward_expansion": 42.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.873333, 27.51975, 27.715118, 27.498517 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 26.799999, "trend_reference": 27.244119, "distance_from_trend": -0.016302, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.583892, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.028418, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.908851, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.06464, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016302, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022994, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.028418, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041391, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089089, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023074, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.633026, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5503, "relative_activity": 0.452425, "balance": 6.633026, "dry_up": 0.296485, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048705, "annualized_volatility": 0.214395, "from_high_reference": -0.118421, "from_low_reference": 0.093878 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.244119, "fair_value_reference": 27.583892, "structural_low": 25.316773, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.056291, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.058769, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.159575, "worst_return": -0.130275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.057198, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.091057, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.02649, "worst_return": -0.114865, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.147736, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.168358, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.006623, "worst_return": -0.342533, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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28.777396, 27.917108, 27.562427 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.700001, "volume": 2960, "typical_volume": 13892.5, "trend": 27.207453, "fair_value": 27.707252, "relative_strength": -2.454849, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.862805, "energy": 27.30152, "activity_lines": [ 28.480997, 28.685683, 27.944614, 27.596139 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.9, "volume": 2309, "typical_volume": 12469.65, "trend": 27.220786, "fair_value": 27.66803, "relative_strength": -4.063781, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.71246, "energy": 20.095647, "activity_lines": [ 27.868667, 28.415413, 27.892121, 27.576304 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.200001, "volume": 4243, "typical_volume": 12101.95, "trend": 27.247453, "fair_value": 27.635784, "relative_strength": -3.741692, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.131215, "energy": 21.368387, "activity_lines": [ 27.513334, 28.184542, 27.869152, 27.574963 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.5, "volume": 2370, "typical_volume": 11925.25, "trend": 27.237453, "fair_value": 27.605789, "relative_strength": -7.811079, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.719279, "energy": 26.997061, "activity_lines": [ 27.086667, 27.805795, 27.777611, 27.52674 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.799999, "volume": 5503, "typical_volume": 12163.35, "trend": 27.244119, "fair_value": 27.583892, "relative_strength": -8.908851, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.84976, "energy": 28.57398, "activity_lines": [ 26.873333, 27.51975, 27.715118, 27.498517 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }