{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a72eedd-4442-4778-8bcd-08744fcbef02", "symbol": "NXTC", "name": "NextCure\u00a0 Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.621, "architecture_energy": 29.515, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 69.724, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.86, "rotation_up": 33.22, "upward_expansion": 21.47, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 23.04, "downward_expansion": 57.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.83, 3.863909, 4.929548, 6.424871 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.84, "trend_reference": 8.341667, "distance_from_trend": -0.2999, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.115152, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.517959, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.091763, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.473874, "excess_performance": -0.661328, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.2999, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.253453, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.517959, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.241947, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.420918, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.334248, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.473874, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 12.897284, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1716657, "relative_activity": 0.256142, "balance": 12.897284, "dry_up": 4.744486, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.369708, "annualized_volatility": 2.206319, "from_high_reference": -0.628968, "from_low_reference": 2.767742 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.341667, "fair_value_reference": 12.115152, "structural_low": 1.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.015275, "positive_rate": 0.452381, "directional_follow_through": 0.547619, "median_excess_return": -0.026383, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 1.964467, "worst_return": -0.786961, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.101783, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.26066, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.390782, "worst_return": -0.465347, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.161301, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.299829, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.771277, "worst_return": -0.663202, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.508338, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.587444, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.069767, "worst_return": -0.655797, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057971, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.122449, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068966, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039216, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060403, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.506522, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.159574, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142285, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.138699, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.877263, "energy": 86.186445, "activity_lines": [ 1.894667, 3.066364, 5.769429, 7.445355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.99, "volume": 120004222, "typical_volume": 6371876.35, "trend": 9.1815, "fair_value": 12.419351, "relative_strength": -38.912367, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.681613, "energy": 54.412453, "activity_lines": [ 3.252, 3.317818, 5.595024, 7.22786 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.24, "volume": 2571116, "typical_volume": 6486827.2, "trend": 8.897167, "fair_value": 12.315761, "relative_strength": -55.772139, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.603155, "energy": 41.832646, "activity_lines": [ 3.765, 3.319636, 5.286, 6.909054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.145, "volume": 2897704, "typical_volume": 6623574.55, "trend": 8.592667, "fair_value": 12.211562, "relative_strength": -56.831333, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.09257, "energy": 31.652547, "activity_lines": [ 4.098333, 3.404182, 5.006738, 6.602462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.84, "volume": 1716657, "typical_volume": 6701974.65, "trend": 8.341667, "fair_value": 12.115152, "relative_strength": -42.091763, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.620753, "energy": 29.514633, "activity_lines": [ 4.83, 3.863909, 4.929548, 6.424871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }