{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a7443eb-5d5e-4448-8d6b-3bc26792c621", "symbol": "SOYB", "name": "TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST SOYBEAN FUND", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 59.397, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.559, "architecture_energy": 61.067, "architecture_maturity": 8.446, "architecture_confidence": 70.684, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.92, "rotation_up": 64.29, "upward_expansion": 83.65, "deceleration": 49.17, "rotation_down": 11.34, "downward_expansion": 12.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.390333, 25.127818, 24.92781, 24.730043 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 25.045, "trend_reference": 24.301833, "distance_from_trend": 0.030581, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.672023, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.058, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.965883, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.08844, "excess_performance": -0.037185, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030581, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030132, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.058, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009214, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049659, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026619, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.08844, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.94321, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 330072, "relative_activity": 0.636891, "balance": 0.94321, "dry_up": 0.807644, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028768, "annualized_volatility": 0.128481, "from_high_reference": -0.050246, "from_low_reference": 0.176927 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.301833, "fair_value_reference": 23.672023, "structural_low": 22.88, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.003499, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.026567, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.080121, "worst_return": -0.074268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.019205, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.0608, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.077162, "worst_return": -0.053276, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.016972, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.16873, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.102681, "worst_return": -0.158208, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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24.696381, 24.457462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.28, "volume": 293478, "typical_volume": 582183.85, "trend": 24.093333, "fair_value": 23.704171, "relative_strength": 4.244093, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.73769, "energy": 78.54988, "activity_lines": [ 25.483333, 25.044, 24.854857, 24.607011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.16, "volume": 317322, "typical_volume": 547931.0, "trend": 24.204667, "fair_value": 23.686735, "relative_strength": -1.23551, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.391209, "energy": 67.784373, "activity_lines": [ 25.478, 25.097273, 24.897762, 24.675828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.045, "volume": 330072, "typical_volume": 518255.45, "trend": 24.301833, "fair_value": 23.672023, "relative_strength": -4.965883, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.558913, "energy": 61.067289, "activity_lines": [ 25.390333, 25.127818, 24.92781, 24.730043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }