{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a74f789-f32f-47e9-8d65-88a2ce8dbf22", "symbol": "300930", "name": "Hangzhou Yitong New Material Co., LTD", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.705, "architecture_energy": 77.426, "architecture_maturity": 21.709, "architecture_confidence": 81.918, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.45, "rotation_up": 8.65, "upward_expansion": 17.89, "deceleration": 37.21, "rotation_down": 77.61, "downward_expansion": 93.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.614667, 25.784001, 28.68575, 29.51664 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 25.25, "trend_reference": 30.4718, "distance_from_trend": -0.171365, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.126209, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.033538, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.631292, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.21875, "excess_performance": -0.22615, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.171365, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02209, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.033538, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.313086, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.206313, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079485, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.21875, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.887806, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7159646, "relative_activity": 0.809853, "balance": 0.887806, "dry_up": 0.990204, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.151981, "annualized_volatility": 0.637515, "from_high_reference": -0.366851, "from_low_reference": 0.260609 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.4718, "fair_value_reference": 26.126209, "structural_low": 20.030001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.012409, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.009167, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.12656, "worst_return": -0.165749, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.00511, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002049, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.377368, "worst_return": -0.155518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.012982, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002809, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.237002, "worst_return": -0.103691, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"mixed", "direction": -37.162585, "energy": 36.440169, "activity_lines": [ 28.922667, 31.384132, 31.546969, 31.526459 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.620001, "volume": 8395271, "typical_volume": 8960228.8, "trend": 31.0968, "fair_value": 26.163868, "relative_strength": -28.197212, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.490619, "energy": 72.26561, "activity_lines": [ 26.354001, 29.594872, 30.697569, 30.965698 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.700001, "volume": 10007638, "typical_volume": 8823987.1, "trend": 30.843467, "fair_value": 26.140928, "relative_strength": -30.73565, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.061366, "energy": 84.6988, "activity_lines": [ 24.147334, 27.825311, 29.817122, 30.359453 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.15, "volume": 9453729, "typical_volume": 8855595.55, "trend": 30.620134, "fair_value": 26.124741, "relative_strength": -24.27625, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.230754, "energy": 82.834855, "activity_lines": [ 23.337334, 26.516015, 29.129198, 29.8631 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.25, "volume": 7159646, "typical_volume": 8840670.25, "trend": 30.4718, "fair_value": 26.126209, "relative_strength": -20.631292, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.70475, "energy": 77.426314, "activity_lines": [ 23.614667, 25.784001, 28.68575, 29.51664 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }