{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a7fbed6-437f-4ec7-ad70-001198849029", "symbol": "CYBO", "name": "VanEck Medical Robotics and Bionic Engineering UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 64.153, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 15.667, "architecture_energy": 23.137, "architecture_maturity": 9.617, "architecture_confidence": 40.48, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.32, "rotation_up": 43.22, "upward_expansion": 40.72, "deceleration": 26.34, "rotation_down": 16.9, "downward_expansion": 44.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.173467, 16.057273, 15.807219, 15.927419 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.598, "trend_reference": 16.269133, "distance_from_trend": 0.020214, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.195263, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.087785, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.4613, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.041354, "excess_performance": -0.212245, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020214, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042245, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.087785, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115657, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.164613, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094802, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.041354, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.979686, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2192, "relative_activity": 0.977982, "balance": 0.979686, "dry_up": 0.967609, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032497, "annualized_volatility": 0.171918, "from_high_reference": -0.122449, "from_low_reference": 0.152639 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.269133, "fair_value_reference": 18.195263, "structural_low": 14.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.009526, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.012898, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.067763, "worst_return": -0.047599, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.005935, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.009027, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.117511, "worst_return": -0.041353, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.065363, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.154538, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.047043, "worst_return": -0.083683, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.062212, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.307309, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.062212, "worst_return": -0.062212, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009277, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014554, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006819, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.098627, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.121612, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046494, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035179, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048805, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037033, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.415303, "energy": 14.864127, "activity_lines": [ 15.948933, 15.8316, 15.688429, 15.927226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.110001, "volume": 3254, "typical_volume": 2299.7, "trend": 16.327067, "fair_value": 18.208801, "relative_strength": -17.007249, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.335938, "energy": 9.018137, "activity_lines": [ 15.9812, 15.905746, 15.723448, 15.90994 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.598, "volume": 2192, "typical_volume": 2241.35, "trend": 16.269133, "fair_value": 18.195263, "relative_strength": -16.4613, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 15.6672, "energy": 23.137063, "activity_lines": [ 16.173467, 16.057273, 15.807219, 15.927419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }