{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a8332e1-57af-49a2-af7c-463a5948f015", "symbol": "002732", "name": "Guangdong Yantang Dairy Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.598, "architecture_energy": 46.205, "architecture_maturity": 92.883, "architecture_confidence": 64.845, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.18, "rotation_up": 26.52, "upward_expansion": 19.15, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 44.89, "downward_expansion": 69.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.040667, 13.024366, 13.768872, 14.524031 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.34, "trend_reference": 15.498005, "distance_from_trend": -0.139244, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.747982, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.203486, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.211267, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.243335, "excess_performance": -0.250735, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.139244, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089588, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.203486, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136891, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.212113, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018238, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.243335, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.436341, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9431200, "relative_activity": 1.309889, "balance": 0.436341, "dry_up": 1.567487, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070887, "annualized_volatility": 0.256976, "from_high_reference": -0.333999, "from_low_reference": 0.110741 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.498005, "fair_value_reference": 16.747982, "structural_low": 12.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.046699, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.013822, "regime_survival": 0.923077, "best_return": 0.218773, "worst_return": -0.136933, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.092646, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.05907, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.251466, "worst_return": -0.21519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.041978, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.078143, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.103784, "worst_return": -0.226936, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.708333, "energy": 78.475935, "activity_lines": [ 12.913231, 13.317024, 14.323636, 15.066462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.12, "volume": 10426700, "typical_volume": 6897082.05, "trend": 15.749005, "fair_value": 16.868552, "relative_strength": -27.093548, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.153416, "energy": 70.571521, "activity_lines": [ 12.640667, 13.013444, 14.034063, 14.819494 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.45, "volume": 16459233, "typical_volume": 7252353.85, "trend": 15.620671, "fair_value": 16.81038, "relative_strength": -17.142016, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.695183, "energy": 58.50867, "activity_lines": [ 12.882667, 13.013275, 13.896968, 14.671171 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.34, "volume": 9431200, "typical_volume": 7200001.55, "trend": 15.498005, "fair_value": 16.747982, "relative_strength": -21.211267, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.597767, "energy": 46.205455, "activity_lines": [ 13.040667, 13.024366, 13.768872, 14.524031 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }