{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a8362b0-9b70-491c-bc72-ba1e9f145708", "symbol": "OGIG", "name": "ALPS - O SHARES GLOBAL INTERNET GIANTS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 55.883, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.114, "architecture_energy": 62.768, "architecture_maturity": 32.207, "architecture_confidence": 67.426, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.32, "rotation_up": 68.31, "upward_expansion": 88.39, "deceleration": 42.97, "rotation_down": 15.62, "downward_expansion": 15.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.32908, 46.375049, 45.771011, 45.102518 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 50.5701, "trend_reference": 44.848083, "distance_from_trend": 0.127587, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 43.927715, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.151212, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.53341, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.158536, "excess_performance": 0.032911, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.127587, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051467, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.151212, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094182, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.085334, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124593, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.158536, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.647211, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39862, "relative_activity": 0.830864, "balance": 0.647211, "dry_up": 0.697372, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053484, "annualized_volatility": 0.314793, "from_high_reference": -0.138744, "from_low_reference": 0.294346 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.848083, "fair_value_reference": 43.927715, "structural_low": 39.07, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.025824, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.000948, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.096741, "worst_return": -0.147112, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.036635, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.002139, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.214306, "worst_return": -0.29929, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.055122, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.022979, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.258792, "worst_return": 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"active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058726, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.138046, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.285169, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03397, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.001366, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024854, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001358, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016559, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.091726, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045269, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 30.577444, "volume": 169038, "typical_volume": 100041.9, "trend": 29.548146, "fair_value": 40.47193, "relative_strength": 1.8744, "stage": 1, "regime": 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[ 45.781007, 45.623171, 44.991386, 44.747219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.6002, "volume": 18287, "typical_volume": 50296.9, "trend": 45.087687, "fair_value": 43.715388, "relative_strength": -18.436279, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.305145, "energy": 7.902999, "activity_lines": [ 45.214913, 45.249649, 44.932622, 44.630015 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.7568, "volume": 30895, "typical_volume": 48323.3, "trend": 44.915413, "fair_value": 43.80577, "relative_strength": -12.933595, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.644909, "energy": 25.178746, "activity_lines": [ 45.755673, 45.476178, 45.179152, 44.7377 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.5701, "volume": 39862, "typical_volume": 47976.55, "trend": 44.848083, "fair_value": 43.927715, "relative_strength": -8.53341, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.114429, "energy": 62.768064, "activity_lines": [ 47.32908, 46.375049, 45.771011, 45.102518 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }