{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a8535d3-e7e8-4cf3-ab0e-6f4f82aa805e", "symbol": "HILTON", "name": "Hilton Metal Forging Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.742, "architecture_energy": 18.304, "architecture_maturity": 21.883, "architecture_confidence": 69.893, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.83, "rotation_up": 20.5, "upward_expansion": 18.37, "deceleration": 52.13, "rotation_down": 47.59, "downward_expansion": 61.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.862, 22.217272, 22.227524, 21.997551 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 21.41, "trend_reference": 22.431563, "distance_from_trend": -0.045541, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 80.145779, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.732862, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -32.560928, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.161379, "excess_performance": -0.11767, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045541, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.2128, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.732862, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00988, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.325609, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113629, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.161379, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.368141, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 368339, "relative_activity": 0.164324, "balance": 1.368141, "dry_up": 0.243943, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106852, "annualized_volatility": 0.818579, "from_high_reference": -0.650163, "from_low_reference": 0.594192 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.431563, "fair_value_reference": 80.145779, "structural_low": 13.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.046777, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.051652, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.378049, "worst_return": -0.33895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.040635, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.143866, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.714634, "worst_return": -0.30297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.392368, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.294209, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.742276, "worst_return": -0.286832, "sufficient": false }, { 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035944, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.050688, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.33895, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.305108, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034653, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.122716, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045622, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.194139, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.682605, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050554, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 147.75, "volume": 185222, "typical_volume": 389068.0, "trend": 136.28, "fair_value": 48.405225, "relative_strength": 28.866869, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 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-15.198285, "energy": 8.656043, "activity_lines": [ 22.468, 22.034, 21.884081, 22.500355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.219999, "volume": 627590, "typical_volume": 2368847.55, "trend": 24.360051, "fair_value": 83.674112, "relative_strength": -31.986376, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.389311, "energy": 15.417043, "activity_lines": [ 22.976, 22.245454, 22.084333, 22.388932 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.139999, "volume": 932234, "typical_volume": 2327982.1, "trend": 23.903896, "fair_value": 82.771805, "relative_strength": -28.080513, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.875157, "energy": 20.266674, "activity_lines": [ 23.535333, 22.621636, 22.357238, 22.374735 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.139999, "volume": 582244, "typical_volume": 2322018.55, "trend": 23.229563, "fair_value": 81.886164, "relative_strength": -34.02677, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.060036, "energy": 9.267021, "activity_lines": [ 22.736666, 22.442909, 22.314333, 22.196419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.49, "volume": 304412, "typical_volume": 2281599.35, "trend": 22.752896, "fair_value": 80.99283, "relative_strength": -33.178041, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.799004, "energy": 8.423084, "activity_lines": [ 22.227999, 22.33509, 22.28619, 22.08419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.41, "volume": 368339, "typical_volume": 2241535.55, "trend": 22.431563, "fair_value": 80.145779, "relative_strength": -32.560928, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.741897, "energy": 18.304058, "activity_lines": [ 21.862, 22.217272, 22.227524, 21.997551 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }