{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a8b7fd2-64a1-4af7-8da7-8ae2da4f7db6", "symbol": "YALA", "name": "Yalla Group\u00a0Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.248, "architecture_energy": 44.979, "architecture_maturity": 73.976, "architecture_confidence": 90.795, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.15, "rotation_up": 27.1, "upward_expansion": 7.14, "deceleration": 57.72, "rotation_down": 45.03, "downward_expansion": 78.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.376, 5.378909, 5.659095, 5.915075 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.48, "trend_reference": 6.26, "distance_from_trend": -0.124601, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.670385, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.033575, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.477064, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.228169, "excess_performance": -0.353794, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.124601, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082873, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.033575, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.288785, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.274771, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149752, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.228169, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.525028, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1371314, "relative_activity": 0.946083, "balance": 0.525028, "dry_up": 0.854871, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075117, "annualized_volatility": 0.315736, "from_high_reference": -0.397802, "from_low_reference": 0.093812 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.26, "fair_value_reference": 5.670385, "structural_low": 5.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.018939, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.00044, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.158924, "worst_return": -0.176596, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.041526, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.035564, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.648241, "worst_return": -0.205882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.040927, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013211, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.55102, "worst_return": -0.275168, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.103774, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.212062, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.17619, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023226, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049598, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": 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"relative_strength": -29.969095, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.876406, "energy": 55.702426, "activity_lines": [ 5.334667, 5.382, 5.766, 6.031871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.39, "volume": 1103691, "typical_volume": 1478386.65, "trend": 6.312333, "fair_value": 5.668205, "relative_strength": -27.212179, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.957161, "energy": 49.540959, "activity_lines": [ 5.336667, 5.364909, 5.705857, 5.968774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.48, "volume": 1371314, "typical_volume": 1449465.25, "trend": 6.26, "fair_value": 5.670385, "relative_strength": -27.477064, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.248209, "energy": 44.978841, "activity_lines": [ 5.376, 5.378909, 5.659095, 5.915075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }