{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a93353c-4544-4beb-8342-74a359acd12e", "symbol": "ASHR", "name": "DBX ETF TRUST XTRACKERS HARVST CSI 300 A SHARES ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 76.553, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.706, "architecture_energy": 16.607, "architecture_maturity": 19.522, "architecture_confidence": 81.314, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.5, "rotation_up": 20.43, "upward_expansion": 42.78, "deceleration": 82.12, "rotation_down": 40.54, "downward_expansion": 34.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.541333, 34.824909, 35.019762, 34.740667 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 35.12, "trend_reference": 34.380667, "distance_from_trend": 0.021504, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.526328, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.275869, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.875052, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.042755, "excess_performance": -0.08287, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021504, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025362, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.275869, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059922, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.058751, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078568, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.042755, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.72994, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22290449, "relative_activity": 1.016656, "balance": 0.72994, "dry_up": 0.969629, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038228, "annualized_volatility": 0.154147, "from_high_reference": -0.059202, "from_low_reference": 0.248898 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.380667, "fair_value_reference": 27.526328, "structural_low": 31.9, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.011486, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.013527, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.142398, "worst_return": -0.070894, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.027061, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.035687, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.093402, "worst_return": -0.166528, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.034621, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.008007, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.219422, "worst_return": 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53.669941, "energy": 34.98375, "activity_lines": [ 35.586667, 35.565818, 35.052476, 34.648914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 35.38, "volume": 21174644, "typical_volume": 25604817.15, "trend": 34.226333, "fair_value": 27.316791, "relative_strength": -2.746091, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.184871, "energy": 32.830637, "activity_lines": [ 35.542667, 35.535273, 35.132667, 34.730151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.63, "volume": 26834208, "typical_volume": 24885323.6, "trend": 34.269333, "fair_value": 27.369959, "relative_strength": -6.118938, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.451901, "energy": 11.579764, "activity_lines": [ 34.882, 35.186909, 35.040095, 34.691677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.36, "volume": 16232329, "typical_volume": 23194185.8, "trend": 34.311, "fair_value": 27.417116, "relative_strength": -3.572272, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.463873, "energy": 15.397661, "activity_lines": [ 34.576667, 35.009455, 35.019238, 34.697527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.2, "volume": 19680532, "typical_volume": 22134902.45, "trend": 34.340333, "fair_value": 27.464273, "relative_strength": -5.093976, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.625682, "energy": 16.841946, "activity_lines": [ 34.35, 34.823091, 34.977286, 34.690366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.12, "volume": 22290449, "typical_volume": 21925261.55, "trend": 34.380667, "fair_value": 27.526328, "relative_strength": -5.875052, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.705648, "energy": 16.607324, "activity_lines": [ 34.541333, 34.824909, 35.019762, 34.740667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }