{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a95b0ad-1b1d-477d-8f77-4f5bf7768e2b", "symbol": "2250", "name": "IKKA Holdings (Cayman) Limited", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.433, "architecture_energy": 52.881, "architecture_maturity": 9.355, "architecture_confidence": 86.99, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.15, "rotation_up": 11.05, "upward_expansion": 10.77, "deceleration": 38.94, "rotation_down": 60.79, "downward_expansion": 81.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.633334, 61.223636, 62.15, 62.879785 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 60.5, "trend_reference": 64.84, "distance_from_trend": -0.066934, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 82.77459, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.269099, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.684629, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.147887, "excess_performance": -0.589259, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.066934, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058971, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.269099, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020109, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.426846, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059039, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.147887, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.320128, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 315250, "relative_activity": 0.49748, "balance": 1.320128, "dry_up": 0.883959, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086332, "annualized_volatility": 0.351627, "from_high_reference": -0.431925, "from_low_reference": 0.102004 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 64.84, "fair_value_reference": 82.77459, "structural_low": 54.900002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.002825, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.046499, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.344262, "worst_return": -0.211189, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.01282, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.078563, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.458333, "worst_return": -0.113636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.048714, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.232756, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.209336, "worst_return": -0.198423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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65.58, "fair_value": 82.781739, "relative_strength": -45.578093, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.81973, "energy": 49.646281, "activity_lines": [ 60.82, 62.12, 62.65, 63.56129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.700001, "volume": 334349, "typical_volume": 629850.05, "trend": 65.183333, "fair_value": 82.779386, "relative_strength": -42.615177, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.419979, "energy": 52.857783, "activity_lines": [ 59.7, 61.550909, 62.352381, 63.181935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 60.5, "volume": 315250, "typical_volume": 633694.35, "trend": 64.84, "fair_value": 82.77459, "relative_strength": -42.684629, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.432508, "energy": 52.880869, "activity_lines": [ 59.633334, 61.223636, 62.15, 62.879785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }