{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a97da8e-adbd-4add-be25-f69302c794fc", "symbol": "IG", "name": "Italgas S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 66.894, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -56.822, "architecture_energy": 70.724, "architecture_maturity": 12.245, "architecture_confidence": 81.312, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.46, "rotation_up": 16.09, "upward_expansion": 22.12, "deceleration": 43.48, "rotation_down": 74.97, "downward_expansion": 61.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.382733, 9.770836, 9.940743, 9.948519 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.922, "trend_reference": 9.947243, "distance_from_trend": -0.103068, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.430151, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.387526, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.056976, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.103038, "excess_performance": -0.27393, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.103068, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032394, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.387526, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.27446, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.17057, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.211058, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.103038, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.362133, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15987694, "relative_activity": 1.612851, "balance": 0.362133, "dry_up": 1.375566, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049117, "annualized_volatility": 0.249677, "from_high_reference": -0.175271, "from_low_reference": 0.274017 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.947243, "fair_value_reference": 6.430151, "structural_low": 8.732, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.025233, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.041837, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.083691, "worst_return": -0.028791, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.024952, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.068344, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.041203, "worst_return": -0.121121, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.025017, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.084129, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.022073, "worst_return": -0.027961, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.768389, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104356, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055869, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002683, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.308481, "volume": 5677427, "typical_volume": 7643008.5, "trend": 4.54923, "fair_value": 4.298707, "relative_strength": -10.430202, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": 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"typical_volume": 10417540.65, "trend": 9.98956, "fair_value": 6.371915, "relative_strength": -3.11002, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.079804, "energy": 20.564507, "activity_lines": [ 10.101067, 10.234745, 10.143833, 10.08405 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.946, "volume": 22486872, "typical_volume": 10631526.7, "trend": 9.979173, "fair_value": 6.401314, "relative_strength": -14.388462, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.673087, "energy": 41.552519, "activity_lines": [ 9.695267, 9.994164, 10.041481, 10.016724 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.922, "volume": 15987694, "typical_volume": 9912690.4, "trend": 9.947243, "fair_value": 6.430151, "relative_strength": -17.056976, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -56.821636, "energy": 70.724269, "activity_lines": [ 9.382733, 9.770836, 9.940743, 9.948519 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }