{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a98323e-d40f-463b-8e63-4f9c705b1d53", "symbol": "SCHY", "name": "SCHWAB STRATEGIC TR INTERNATIONAL DIVIDEND EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.097, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.575, "architecture_energy": 82.644, "architecture_maturity": 8.019, "architecture_confidence": 65.047, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.68, "rotation_up": 84.6, "upward_expansion": 95.22, "deceleration": 39.02, "rotation_down": 8.52, "downward_expansion": 17.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.068667, 32.627976, 32.320727, 32.199654 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 33.64, "trend_reference": 32.030982, "distance_from_trend": 0.050233, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.545487, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.316867, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.444894, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.031904, "excess_performance": -0.093721, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050233, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034481, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.316867, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025232, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014449, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008997, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.031904, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.841777, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4011743, "relative_activity": 1.377247, "balance": 1.841777, "dry_up": 1.418764, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01928, "annualized_volatility": 0.146852, "from_high_reference": -0.005989, "from_low_reference": 0.249027 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.030982, "fair_value_reference": 25.545487, "structural_low": 30.531978, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.006879, "positive_rate": 0.62069, "directional_follow_through": 0.62069, "median_excess_return": -0.022641, "regime_survival": 0.689655, "best_return": 0.085659, "worst_return": -0.078302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.034632, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.023933, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.091702, "worst_return": -0.096341, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.033192, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.108738, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.176293, "worst_return": -0.028421, "sufficient": true }, { 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"stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.303419, "energy": 15.884028, "activity_lines": [ 31.966236, 31.916031, 31.909962, 31.879612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.54, "volume": 4034193, "typical_volume": 2900951.15, "trend": 31.700919, "fair_value": 25.32051, "relative_strength": -0.66295, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.027992, "energy": 34.445098, "activity_lines": [ 32.154715, 32.035374, 31.970332, 31.940566 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.41, "volume": 4108178, "typical_volume": 2878467.05, "trend": 31.788375, "fair_value": 25.387251, "relative_strength": -0.525942, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.839737, "energy": 46.783472, "activity_lines": [ 32.288667, 32.117961, 32.024003, 31.986313 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.36, "volume": 4376594, "typical_volume": 2880517.15, "trend": 31.904846, "fair_value": 25.465158, "relative_strength": 1.194889, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.698883, "energy": 71.145787, "activity_lines": [ 32.686, 32.359281, 32.164179, 32.087708 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.64, "volume": 4011743, "typical_volume": 2912871.05, "trend": 32.030982, "fair_value": 25.545487, "relative_strength": -1.444894, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.574999, "energy": 82.643613, "activity_lines": [ 33.068667, 32.627976, 32.320727, 32.199654 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }