{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a9834d1-59c0-4fa0-9370-8ee8b9c0d4ab", "symbol": "GPIL", "name": "Godawari Power & Ispat Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 67.668, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.952, "architecture_energy": 76.682, "architecture_maturity": 17.895, "architecture_confidence": 75.901, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.51, "rotation_up": 9.61, "upward_expansion": 17.36, "deceleration": 37.7, "rotation_down": 79.46, "downward_expansion": 95.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 242.57, 249.577273, 263.931428, 266.935634 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 240.610001, "trend_reference": 266.954999, "distance_from_trend": -0.098687, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 267.381751, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.100126, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.836214, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.04128, "excess_performance": 0.002429, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.098687, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006219, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.100126, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133401, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068362, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.33095, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04128, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.55752, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6414746, "relative_activity": 0.567368, "balance": 1.55752, "dry_up": 0.600185, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064368, "annualized_volatility": 0.223781, "from_high_reference": -0.248094, "from_low_reference": 0.299966 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 266.954999, "fair_value_reference": 267.381751, "structural_low": 230.550003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.058364, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.008919, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.111663, "worst_return": -0.05402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.210152, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.063858, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.354187, "worst_return": -0.016954, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.433998, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.299199, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.493758, "worst_return": 0.087164, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036255, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.077853, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.08497, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.014291, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109298, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035139, "active": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 11589373.2, "trend": 268.549665, "fair_value": 271.589243, "relative_strength": -3.087134, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.239322, "energy": 71.652812, "activity_lines": [ 247.706667, 257.664546, 270.130713, 270.321934 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 243.0, "volume": 8061415, "typical_volume": 11446188.45, "trend": 267.547999, "fair_value": 269.505182, "relative_strength": -4.820087, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.632661, "energy": 68.097641, "activity_lines": [ 244.79, 253.398182, 267.124523, 268.673569 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 240.610001, "volume": 6414746, "typical_volume": 11306139.35, "trend": 266.954999, "fair_value": 267.381751, "relative_strength": -6.836214, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.952184, "energy": 76.682106, "activity_lines": [ 242.57, 249.577273, 263.931428, 266.935634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }