{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a9da468-bd1b-4a65-be23-978a72ce5637", "symbol": "TNR", "name": "Thai Nippon Rubber Industry Public Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.697, "architecture_energy": 69.515, "architecture_maturity": 15.522, "architecture_confidence": 67.707, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.91, "rotation_up": 71.14, "upward_expansion": 88.08, "deceleration": 48.5, "rotation_down": 11.33, "downward_expansion": 14.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.536667, 5.453636, 5.284048, 5.208399 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.55, "trend_reference": 5.191672, "distance_from_trend": 0.06902, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.901532, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.195831, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.392693, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.023748, "excess_performance": -0.168577, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06902, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022189, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.195831, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106601, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.133927, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.145441, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.023748, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.102119, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 345300, "relative_activity": 0.723899, "balance": 3.102119, "dry_up": 1.293187, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03562, "annualized_volatility": 0.223181, "from_high_reference": -0.151738, "from_low_reference": 0.180444 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.191672, "fair_value_reference": 6.901532, "structural_low": 4.701619, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.011328, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.023026, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.024096, "worst_return": -0.082873, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.05435, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.105248, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.005525, "worst_return": -0.103175, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.030622, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.022491, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.378704, "worst_return": -0.31746, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.226855, "energy": 48.922833, "activity_lines": [ 5.226667, 5.157455, 5.055983, 5.101701 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.5, "volume": 1003600, "typical_volume": 674900.0, "trend": 5.214486, "fair_value": 6.938433, "relative_strength": -17.525405, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.170091, "energy": 66.75582, "activity_lines": [ 5.333333, 5.231273, 5.100478, 5.119568 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.65, "volume": 649500, "typical_volume": 645630.0, "trend": 5.210916, "fair_value": 6.92972, "relative_strength": -15.429381, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 62.006705, "energy": 78.666899, "activity_lines": [ 5.456667, 5.321818, 5.158884, 5.147666 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.5, "volume": 909800, "typical_volume": 598400.0, "trend": 5.202347, "fair_value": 6.92056, "relative_strength": -17.159546, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.577568, "energy": 71.793203, "activity_lines": [ 5.5, 5.371818, 5.202143, 5.166316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.5, "volume": 562800, "typical_volume": 484555.0, "trend": 5.195377, "fair_value": 6.911142, "relative_strength": -15.455389, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.891843, "energy": 69.347899, "activity_lines": [ 5.52, 5.412727, 5.242286, 5.18552 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.55, "volume": 345300, "typical_volume": 477000.0, "trend": 5.191672, "fair_value": 6.901532, "relative_strength": -13.392693, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.696809, "energy": 69.514503, "activity_lines": [ 5.536667, 5.453636, 5.284048, 5.208399 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }