{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a9ddfd6-f5c6-4686-a4c0-909d41d05cf1", "symbol": "688599", "name": "Trina Solar Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.964, "architecture_energy": 52.116, "architecture_maturity": 65.456, "architecture_confidence": 95.142, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.99, "rotation_up": 24.46, "upward_expansion": 8.33, "deceleration": 58.31, "rotation_down": 54.31, "downward_expansion": 81.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.262, 13.397636, 14.372333, 15.293269 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.77, "trend_reference": 16.548, "distance_from_trend": -0.167875, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.943277, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.309542, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.471865, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.2656, "excess_performance": -0.222396, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.167875, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087124, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.309542, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113641, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.184719, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143355, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.2656, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.466716, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 185546997, "relative_activity": 1.109009, "balance": 0.466716, "dry_up": 1.008492, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096587, "annualized_volatility": 0.438387, "from_high_reference": -0.432399, "from_low_reference": 0.16893 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.548, "fair_value_reference": 19.943277, "structural_low": 11.78, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.033734, "positive_rate": 0.387097, "directional_follow_through": 0.612903, "median_excess_return": -0.03314, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.362918, "worst_return": -0.198162, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.172837, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.14872, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.639601, "worst_return": -0.282563, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.10971, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.2013, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.498144, "worst_return": -0.375499, "sufficient": true }, { 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"energy": 74.237449, "activity_lines": [ 12.888667, 13.502727, 14.737524, 15.684301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.57, "volume": 152697244, "typical_volume": 172160286.65, "trend": 16.640667, "fair_value": 20.077049, "relative_strength": -17.726011, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.564393, "energy": 59.71752, "activity_lines": [ 13.037333, 13.400727, 14.532333, 15.478473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.77, "volume": 185546997, "typical_volume": 167308780.25, "trend": 16.548, "fair_value": 19.943277, "relative_strength": -18.471865, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.963641, "energy": 52.115836, "activity_lines": [ 13.262, 13.397636, 14.372333, 15.293269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }