{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6aa0d49c-6261-4850-8248-cac36cfdca12", "symbol": "5SO", "name": "Duty Free International Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.577, "architecture_energy": 44.186, "architecture_maturity": 54.873, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.03, "rotation_up": 19.33, "upward_expansion": 6.7, "deceleration": 46.15, "rotation_down": 54.87, "downward_expansion": 80.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.066467, 0.067164, 0.068738, 0.069942 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.066, "trend_reference": 0.0718, "distance_from_trend": -0.08078, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.07589, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.130316, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.97671, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.164557, "excess_performance": -0.319392, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.08078, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082624, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.130316, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078548, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.289767, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202321, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.164557, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.367319, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 95200, "relative_activity": 0.312449, "balance": 0.367319, "dry_up": 0.487052, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059441, "annualized_volatility": 0.337793, "from_high_reference": -0.3125, "from_low_reference": 0.015385 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0718, "fair_value_reference": 0.07589, "structural_low": 0.065, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.019791, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.145158, "worst_return": -0.134121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.082212, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.094832, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.602616, "worst_return": -0.136361, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.018992, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.088727, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.469049, "worst_return": -0.248217, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.373933, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.201671, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.430129, "worst_return": -0.339897, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-03-31", "end": "2023-04-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061067, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-04-28", "end": "2023-07-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.082087, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-07-28", "end": "2023-09-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.182386, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-09-08", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.195949, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.248217, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.168544, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.128354, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.140839, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.20635, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.159845, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0375, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050633, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.108108, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.12427, "volume": 93100, "typical_volume": 543580.0, "trend": 0.124009, "fair_value": 0.089602, "relative_strength": 16.9109, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.37003, "energy": 54.550161, "activity_lines": [ 0.067733, 0.068982, 0.070257, 0.071615 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.067, "volume": 19200, "typical_volume": 295735.0, "trend": 0.0735, "fair_value": 0.077148, "relative_strength": -26.986087, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.035695, "energy": 39.119955, "activity_lines": [ 0.067333, 0.068327, 0.069857, 0.071168 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.068, "volume": 337600, "typical_volume": 296235.0, "trend": 0.073067, "fair_value": 0.076698, "relative_strength": -26.461465, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.217655, "energy": 35.311876, "activity_lines": [ 0.067467, 0.068036, 0.069586, 0.070813 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.066, "volume": 141600, "typical_volume": 301940.0, "trend": 0.072433, "fair_value": 0.076269, "relative_strength": -28.608459, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.42642, "energy": 44.924433, "activity_lines": [ 0.066867, 0.067527, 0.069148, 0.070357 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.066, "volume": 95200, "typical_volume": 304690.0, "trend": 0.0718, "fair_value": 0.07589, "relative_strength": -28.97671, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.577017, "energy": 44.185835, "activity_lines": [ 0.066467, 0.067164, 0.068738, 0.069942 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }