{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6aa3b299-0040-4f8e-adf9-f739eb473538", "symbol": "688722", "name": "Beijing Tongyizhong New Material Technology Corporation", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.266, "architecture_energy": 74.879, "architecture_maturity": 33.138, "architecture_confidence": 85.763, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.79, "rotation_up": 11.71, "upward_expansion": 19.51, "deceleration": 34.32, "rotation_down": 73.57, "downward_expansion": 90.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.142, 14.968823, 15.967707, 16.614381 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.32, "trend_reference": 17.662062, "distance_from_trend": -0.189223, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.524744, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.077602, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.381953, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.281846, "excess_performance": -0.238642, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.189223, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04559, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.077602, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.285976, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.21382, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084484, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.281846, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.513647, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15648933, "relative_activity": 0.900732, "balance": 0.513647, "dry_up": 1.529313, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124405, "annualized_volatility": 0.603766, "from_high_reference": -0.402337, "from_low_reference": 0.117877 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.662062, "fair_value_reference": 15.524744, "structural_low": 12.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.011015, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": 0.024865, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.235414, "worst_return": -0.217914, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.092642, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.071628, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.292113, "worst_return": -0.231933, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.066597, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.074926, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.176419, "worst_return": -0.211908, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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{ "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.71, "volume": 56809452, "typical_volume": 18139573.2, "trend": 18.200062, "fair_value": 15.588043, "relative_strength": -23.539525, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.767224, "energy": 48.718981, "activity_lines": [ 15.890354, 16.31775, 16.864448, 17.439339 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.0, "volume": 18974053, "typical_volume": 17556183.85, "trend": 18.020396, "fair_value": 15.561127, "relative_strength": -27.627635, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.930999, "energy": 64.625615, "activity_lines": [ 14.84, 15.632798, 16.468629, 17.103851 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.95, "volume": 14846048, "typical_volume": 17239544.7, "trend": 17.836396, "fair_value": 15.5395, "relative_strength": -21.991521, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.903044, "energy": 68.101588, "activity_lines": [ 14.378, 15.224486, 16.19062, 16.841245 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.32, "volume": 15648933, "typical_volume": 17373570.1, "trend": 17.662062, "fair_value": 15.524744, "relative_strength": -21.381953, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.265827, "energy": 74.878604, "activity_lines": [ 14.142, 14.968823, 15.967707, 16.614381 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }