{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6aa3cce5-f044-4533-b4bb-ade807f7c673", "symbol": "APAM", "name": "Aperam S.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.984, "architecture_energy": 29.844, "architecture_maturity": 43.456, "architecture_confidence": 70.017, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.82, "rotation_up": 37.43, "upward_expansion": 59.51, "deceleration": 69.92, "rotation_down": 22.66, "downward_expansion": 14.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.047334, 46.744727, 46.777605, 44.957093 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 46.880001, "trend_reference": 42.618786, "distance_from_trend": 0.099984, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.549399, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.642066, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.4573, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.181428, "excess_performance": 0.007182, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.099984, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130159, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.642066, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16369, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.044573, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.258826, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.181428, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.300175, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1153, "relative_activity": 3.511497, "balance": 1.300175, "dry_up": 4.81803, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066208, "annualized_volatility": 0.522867, "from_high_reference": -0.107897, "from_low_reference": 0.90408 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.618786, "fair_value_reference": 28.549399, "structural_low": 31.312737, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.00287, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.008315, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.20948, "worst_return": -0.116852, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.029048, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.068745, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.274852, "worst_return": -0.180122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.11155, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.174116, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.25589, "worst_return": -0.366467, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.158054, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058437, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.107585, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.128655, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054918, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.059508, "active": false }, { 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.150002, "volume": 782, "typical_volume": 139.9, "trend": 41.887312, "fair_value": 28.249829, "relative_strength": 16.329826, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.588215, "energy": 32.727397, "activity_lines": [ 47.046, 47.344, 46.361594, 44.412185 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.66, "volume": 2616, "typical_volume": 270.7, "trend": 42.206627, "fair_value": 28.392939, "relative_strength": 5.363588, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.740054, "energy": 28.463955, "activity_lines": [ 46.941333, 46.903273, 46.541706, 44.655585 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.880001, "volume": 1153, "typical_volume": 328.35, "trend": 42.618786, "fair_value": 28.549399, "relative_strength": 4.4573, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.983646, "energy": 29.844161, "activity_lines": [ 47.047334, 46.744727, 46.777605, 44.957093 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }