{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6aa4c93f-bf75-4e85-aa95-6d355e04902a", "symbol": "9989", "name": "Shenzhen Hepalink Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-10-09", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.399, "architecture_energy": 72.38, "architecture_maturity": 11.39, "architecture_confidence": 77.775, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.84, "rotation_up": 8.62, "upward_expansion": 15.66, "deceleration": 37.26, "rotation_down": 76.69, "downward_expansion": 91.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.896667, 4.023364, 4.111262, 4.178056 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.025, "trend_reference": 4.31579, "distance_from_trend": -0.067378, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.071547, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.011432, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.784377, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.17357, "excess_performance": -0.108605, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.067378, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072525, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.011432, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054278, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087844, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030752, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.17357, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.95017, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2056000, "relative_activity": 1.797203, "balance": 0.95017, "dry_up": 2.597028, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061061, "annualized_volatility": 0.285548, "from_high_reference": -0.275263, "from_low_reference": 0.076203 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.31579, "fair_value_reference": 4.071547, "structural_low": 3.74, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.017559, "positive_rate": 0.354839, "directional_follow_through": 0.645161, "median_excess_return": 0.006542, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.297873, "worst_return": -0.24581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.047973, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.074105, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.288732, "worst_return": -0.307049, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.153452, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.136532, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.024299, "worst_return": -0.218765, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 4.06818, "relative_strength": -16.437508, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.61292, "energy": 74.34251, "activity_lines": [ 3.957667, 4.116727, 4.154758, 4.235213 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "close": 3.825, "volume": 2276500, "typical_volume": 1169325.0, "trend": 4.347176, "fair_value": 4.069455, "relative_strength": -12.742013, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.113162, "energy": 77.066372, "activity_lines": [ 3.875, 4.046636, 4.121708, 4.198841 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-09", "close": 4.025, "volume": 2056000, "typical_volume": 1144000.0, "trend": 4.31579, "fair_value": 4.071547, "relative_strength": -8.784377, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.398552, "energy": 72.379827, "activity_lines": [ 3.896667, 4.023364, 4.111262, 4.178056 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }