{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6aa7b9c9-36ae-482c-9dff-3f6d300cc401", "symbol": "4426", "name": "Li Cheng Enterprise Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.227, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.794, "architecture_energy": 31.166, "architecture_maturity": 12.079, "architecture_confidence": 90.001, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.36, "rotation_up": 17.39, "upward_expansion": 3.31, "deceleration": 47.46, "rotation_down": 48.84, "downward_expansion": 74.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.005333, 8.111818, 8.128667, 8.294065 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.92, "trend_reference": 8.571333, "distance_from_trend": -0.07599, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.473654, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.412186, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -40.044683, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.159236, "excess_performance": -0.600608, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.07599, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060058, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.412186, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04748, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.400447, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068743, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.159236, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.784472, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 471615, "relative_activity": 0.43503, "balance": 1.784472, "dry_up": 0.495066, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08615, "annualized_volatility": 0.344733, "from_high_reference": -0.320172, "from_low_reference": 0.061662 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.571333, "fair_value_reference": 13.473654, "structural_low": 7.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.007634, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.039934, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.11804, "worst_return": -0.1, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.069351, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.172371, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.162583, "worst_return": -0.125245, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.101322, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.219321, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.08686, "worst_return": -0.179426, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.248458, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.616904, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.138085, "worst_return": -0.332681, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-12-30", "end": "2023-01-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016729, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-01-20", "end": "2023-02-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054446, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-03-03", "end": "2023-04-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085389, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-04-28", "end": "2023-05-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102881, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-02", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.060674, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064593, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071926, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007634, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.448718, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.225256, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035242, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.234259, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013699, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 20.049999, "volume": 684087, "typical_volume": 1177229.2, "trend": 24.19, "fair_value": 24.801637, "relative_strength": -26.545962, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": 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"relative_strength": -37.48496, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.494528, "energy": 14.745958, "activity_lines": [ 8.233333, 8.21, 8.202762, 8.388323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.9, "volume": 392872, "typical_volume": 1084213.0, "trend": 8.612667, "fair_value": 13.55782, "relative_strength": -39.042214, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.897281, "energy": 26.360067, "activity_lines": [ 8.079333, 8.159818, 8.162048, 8.338753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 7.92, "volume": 471615, "typical_volume": 1084097.9, "trend": 8.571333, "fair_value": 13.473654, "relative_strength": -40.044683, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.793975, "energy": 31.165842, "activity_lines": [ 8.005333, 8.111818, 8.128667, 8.294065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }