{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6aae8a19-5ec3-486b-ab6b-672b46e074f3", "symbol": "601718", "name": "Jihua Group Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.779, "architecture_energy": 53.479, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.109, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.0, "rotation_up": 27.95, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 46.97, "rotation_down": 39.51, "downward_expansion": 67.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.768667, 1.737455, 1.945333, 2.220387 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.78, "trend_reference": 2.589, "distance_from_trend": -0.312476, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.896433, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.385451, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.564339, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.463855, "excess_performance": -0.420652, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.312476, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.183624, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.385451, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.224773, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.415643, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083118, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.463855, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.584099, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 102078356, "relative_activity": 0.625995, "balance": 0.584099, "dry_up": 0.997519, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105877, "annualized_volatility": 0.485096, "from_high_reference": -0.662879, "from_low_reference": 0.244755 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.589, "fair_value_reference": 2.896433, "structural_low": 1.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": 0.002031, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.173611, "worst_return": -0.307692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.010677, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.002558, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.539326, "worst_return": -0.406667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.007067, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.05427, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.322097, "worst_return": -0.468657, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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2.918158, "relative_strength": -41.469067, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.185659, "energy": 66.221804, "activity_lines": [ 1.71, 1.775455, 2.117429, 2.402151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.69, "volume": 166470481, "typical_volume": 180614776.55, "trend": 2.694667, "fair_value": 2.910363, "relative_strength": -44.575429, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.682032, "energy": 63.819281, "activity_lines": [ 1.715333, 1.741091, 2.045857, 2.333677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.8, "volume": 135934900, "typical_volume": 170568266.45, "trend": 2.641333, "fair_value": 2.903462, "relative_strength": -40.334725, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.362429, "energy": 54.496788, "activity_lines": [ 1.757333, 1.737091, 1.992905, 2.275957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.78, "volume": 102078356, "typical_volume": 163065721.25, "trend": 2.589, "fair_value": 2.896433, "relative_strength": -41.564339, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.779229, "energy": 53.478506, "activity_lines": [ 1.768667, 1.737455, 1.945333, 2.220387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }