{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ab142b6-7d80-43e0-b130-1600817a5c32", "symbol": "200030", "name": "FAWER Automotive Parts Limited Company", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.013, "architecture_energy": 50.534, "architecture_maturity": 73.239, "architecture_confidence": 86.94, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.85, "rotation_up": 28.44, "upward_expansion": 8.57, "deceleration": 60.45, "rotation_down": 46.16, "downward_expansion": 79.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.754667, 2.756341, 2.816966, 2.892054 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.8, "trend_reference": 2.98474, "distance_from_trend": -0.061895, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.858574, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.020491, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.597604, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.111111, "excess_performance": -0.118511, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061895, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040765, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.020491, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071092, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.115976, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.111556, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.111111, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.686772, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 235621, "relative_activity": 0.432562, "balance": 0.686772, "dry_up": 0.623387, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031221, "annualized_volatility": 0.154079, "from_high_reference": -0.141104, "from_low_reference": 0.089494 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.98474, "fair_value_reference": 2.858574, "structural_low": 2.57, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.011451, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.016542, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.107438, "worst_return": -0.063253, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.028455, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.012242, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.133511, "worst_return": -0.061068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.020171, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020128, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.111962, "worst_return": -0.113958, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00289, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076023, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.038637, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009585, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": 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552973.1, "trend": 3.02274, "fair_value": 2.848439, "relative_strength": -14.666257, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.058168, "energy": 89.924823, "activity_lines": [ 2.70945, 2.76578, 2.862664, 2.937767 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.73, "volume": 363044, "typical_volume": 547058.9, "trend": 3.009074, "fair_value": 2.851818, "relative_strength": -11.593113, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.191767, "energy": 82.734995, "activity_lines": [ 2.705333, 2.752905, 2.841368, 2.91888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.79, "volume": 312788, "typical_volume": 548529.3, "trend": 2.99674, "fair_value": 2.855247, "relative_strength": -7.82704, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.679385, "energy": 61.640728, "activity_lines": [ 2.729333, 2.752981, 2.827833, 2.904746 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.8, "volume": 235621, "typical_volume": 544710.15, "trend": 2.98474, "fair_value": 2.858574, "relative_strength": -11.597604, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.013434, "energy": 50.533797, "activity_lines": [ 2.754667, 2.756341, 2.816966, 2.892054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }