{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ab31529-0b50-41ae-a8a5-b08118aba162", "symbol": "STPX", "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI Europe Materials UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.783, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.397, "architecture_energy": 37.904, "architecture_maturity": 35.417, "architecture_confidence": 49.302, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.74, "rotation_up": 42.88, "upward_expansion": 67.94, "deceleration": 72.04, "rotation_down": 27.64, "downward_expansion": 10.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 375.566665, 374.209088, 373.752617, 368.771073 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 386.75, "trend_reference": 362.148333, "distance_from_trend": 0.067933, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 310.795513, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.244387, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.044892, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.102637, "excess_performance": -0.068255, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.067933, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057475, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.244387, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028361, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020449, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028573, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.102637, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.584103, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 271, "relative_activity": 0.324027, "balance": 0.584103, "dry_up": 1.166079, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025419, "annualized_volatility": 0.18324, "from_high_reference": -0.00335, "from_low_reference": 0.307471 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 362.148333, "fair_value_reference": 310.795513, "structural_low": 313.399994, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.012842, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.001677, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.097532, "worst_return": -0.039993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.01306, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.033784, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.107853, "worst_return": -0.043796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.016946, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.04235, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.070656, "worst_return": -0.110085, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 915.45, "trend": 360.383332, "fair_value": 310.042949, "relative_strength": -2.251308, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.100558, "energy": 20.571176, "activity_lines": [ 370.036664, 371.927269, 371.860474, 367.069998 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 386.75, "volume": 271, "typical_volume": 836.35, "trend": 362.148333, "fair_value": 310.795513, "relative_strength": -2.044892, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.397048, "energy": 37.903652, "activity_lines": [ 375.566665, 374.209088, 373.752617, 368.771073 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }