{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ab9805f-623a-4bc6-a948-4b2f9a0248a2", "symbol": "EISR", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy MSCI Emerging SRI PAB UCITS ETF EUR Distribution", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.132, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.873, "architecture_energy": 24.029, "architecture_maturity": 64.053, "architecture_confidence": 81.089, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.33, "rotation_up": 27.34, "upward_expansion": 58.13, "deceleration": 88.28, "rotation_down": 29.67, "downward_expansion": 19.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 125.973335, 126.893274, 125.700105, 123.098466 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 127.660004, "trend_reference": 120.075142, "distance_from_trend": 0.063168, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 101.520552, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.257479, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.366762, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.10373, "excess_performance": -0.067162, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063168, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053182, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.257479, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009763, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.043668, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05841, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.10373, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.77983, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1507, "relative_activity": 0.981216, "balance": 1.77983, "dry_up": 1.296188, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036334, "annualized_volatility": 0.227134, "from_high_reference": -0.049442, "from_low_reference": 0.239821 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 120.075142, "fair_value_reference": 101.520552, "structural_low": 106.147816, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.000192, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.028585, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.103046, "worst_return": -0.042291, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.003786, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.003992, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.240171, "worst_return": -0.041463, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.003649, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.037524, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.244897, "worst_return": -0.019697, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 1513.9, "trend": 119.11302, "fair_value": 101.079222, "relative_strength": -2.895329, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.944159, "energy": 30.53139, "activity_lines": [ 126.458666, 127.221455, 124.851628, 122.2252 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 124.580002, "volume": 4261, "typical_volume": 1476.9, "trend": 119.591365, "fair_value": 101.280023, "relative_strength": -3.994192, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.558522, "energy": 21.171026, "activity_lines": [ 125.53, 126.781637, 125.163088, 122.577909 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 127.660004, "volume": 1507, "typical_volume": 1535.85, "trend": 120.075142, "fair_value": 101.520552, "relative_strength": -4.366762, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.872838, "energy": 24.028739, "activity_lines": [ 125.973335, 126.893274, 125.700105, 123.098466 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }