{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ab9ada2-c97e-4cee-beb6-f980bc39b1bf", "symbol": "1443", "name": "Lily Logistics Development Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 65.238, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 16.474, "architecture_energy": 13.106, "architecture_maturity": 20.312, "architecture_confidence": 59.517, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 69.58, "rotation_up": 20.96, "upward_expansion": 52.77, "deceleration": 85.22, "rotation_down": 34.95, "downward_expansion": 21.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.74, 26.044545, 25.926191, 25.628925 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 25.1, "trend_reference": 25.585, "distance_from_trend": -0.018956, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.210897, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.140732, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.772549, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.054614, "excess_performance": -0.495986, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018956, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011844, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.140732, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03085, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.337725, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041747, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.054614, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.731005, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34912, "relative_activity": 0.268547, "balance": 0.731005, "dry_up": 0.5902, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062826, "annualized_volatility": 0.443189, "from_high_reference": -0.209449, "from_low_reference": 0.206731 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.585, "fair_value_reference": 29.210897, "structural_low": 20.799999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.00509, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.029956, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.246154, "worst_return": -0.040752, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.008116, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.029342, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.24375, "worst_return": -0.061889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.02633, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.076228, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.232198, "worst_return": -0.107492, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.149306, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.175607, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.835913, "worst_return": -0.141066, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056075, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.007622, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014107, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034921, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.013029, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004934, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032573, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010989, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012862, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", 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"activity_lines": [ 26.39, 26.478182, 25.801905, 25.633763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.25, "volume": 96067, "typical_volume": 132029.25, "trend": 25.676667, "fair_value": 29.25641, "relative_strength": -28.839621, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.965215, "energy": 8.530054, "activity_lines": [ 26.383333, 26.447273, 25.906905, 25.66914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.6, "volume": 77918, "typical_volume": 130865.8, "trend": 25.646667, "fair_value": 29.232051, "relative_strength": -31.200005, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.012, "energy": 15.47354, "activity_lines": [ 26.12, 26.295455, 25.943095, 25.664194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 25.1, "volume": 34912, "typical_volume": 130003.3, "trend": 25.585, "fair_value": 29.210897, "relative_strength": -33.772549, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.473521, "energy": 13.105938, "activity_lines": [ 25.74, 26.044545, 25.926191, 25.628925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }