{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6abe9c91-fb97-47be-be66-226917c235be", "symbol": "603033", "name": "Sanwei Holding Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.429, "architecture_energy": 74.749, "architecture_maturity": 33.996, "architecture_confidence": 90.231, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 11.74, "upward_expansion": 17.41, "deceleration": 38.56, "rotation_down": 70.87, "downward_expansion": 90.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.742667, 8.205091, 9.153381, 9.635097 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.89, "trend_reference": 10.18, "distance_from_trend": -0.224951, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.432545, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.365375, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.113607, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.299911, "excess_performance": -0.256707, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.224951, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068704, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.365375, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.246055, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.261136, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191405, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.299911, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.478033, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36316068, "relative_activity": 0.833994, "balance": 0.478033, "dry_up": 0.915637, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.135712, "annualized_volatility": 0.489203, "from_high_reference": -0.417712, "from_low_reference": 0.127143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.18, "fair_value_reference": 12.432545, "structural_low": 7.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.038056, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": 0.010462, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.256364, "worst_return": -0.129295, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.032947, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.06162, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.495187, "worst_return": -0.29006, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.040126, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.094201, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.352025, "worst_return": -0.2944, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.095275, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.059182, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021044, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026173, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043318, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.130025, "energy": 74.099979, "activity_lines": [ 8.916667, 9.416182, 10.080476, 10.328516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.19, "volume": 43463336, "typical_volume": 42987710.3, "trend": 10.470333, "fair_value": 12.592035, "relative_strength": -21.473426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.512798, "energy": 66.477794, "activity_lines": [ 8.644, 9.098545, 9.870333, 10.175892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.39, "volume": 42238421, "typical_volume": 42784500.45, "trend": 10.374667, "fair_value": 12.537994, "relative_strength": -29.544782, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.956581, "energy": 61.935085, "activity_lines": [ 8.187333, 8.693455, 9.597571, 9.977161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.46, "volume": 37467023, "typical_volume": 42928313.95, "trend": 10.277333, "fair_value": 12.483174, "relative_strength": -28.680493, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.532767, "energy": 81.047163, "activity_lines": [ 7.865333, 8.377636, 9.347952, 9.789118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.89, "volume": 36316068, "typical_volume": 43544766.8, "trend": 10.18, "fair_value": 12.432545, "relative_strength": -26.113607, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.429284, "energy": 74.748727, "activity_lines": [ 7.742667, 8.205091, 9.153381, 9.635097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }