{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6abfa411-01fb-4b1e-b05d-4d40c19142c3", "symbol": "MQEG", "name": "Macquarie Core Global Equity Active ETF", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-10-02", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.776, "architecture_energy": 54.177, "architecture_maturity": 45.067, "architecture_confidence": 61.909, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.59, "rotation_up": 48.02, "upward_expansion": 76.66, "deceleration": 73.71, "rotation_down": 26.97, "downward_expansion": 7.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.119939, 14.083727, 14.00005, 13.827719 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.29, "trend_reference": 13.524223, "distance_from_trend": 0.056623, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.159024, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.175259, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.184055, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.138645, "excess_performance": 0.126687, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056623, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024388, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.175259, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008875, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.081841, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021136, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.138645, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.30995, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 638332, "relative_activity": 3.917002, "balance": 1.30995, "dry_up": 2.584349, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013962, "annualized_volatility": 0.074123, "from_high_reference": -0.009702, "from_low_reference": 0.174595 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.524223, "fair_value_reference": 12.159024, "structural_low": 12.5, "invalidation": "A sustained 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"positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025076, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004662, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053077, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040505, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": 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"energy": 70.98833, "activity_lines": [ 14.124667, 14.021736, 13.811188, 13.572297 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 13.977086, "volume": 52059, "typical_volume": 151193.25, "trend": 13.327895, "fair_value": 12.077274, "relative_strength": 2.030095, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.882637, "energy": 65.828792, "activity_lines": [ 14.094362, 14.028415, 13.848652, 13.616184 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 13.967116, "volume": 335836, "typical_volume": 154855.3, "trend": 13.364611, "fair_value": 12.093427, "relative_strength": 2.782817, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.52018, "energy": 59.904811, "activity_lines": [ 14.048928, 14.028635, 13.87961, 13.657424 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 13.857452, "volume": 495477, "typical_volume": 164828.05, "trend": 13.39967, "fair_value": 12.108376, "relative_strength": 4.85543, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.000242, "energy": 34.645366, "activity_lines": [ 13.963799, 14.003732, 13.895376, 13.68922 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 13.987055, "volume": 318756, "typical_volume": 151805.65, "trend": 13.432718, "fair_value": 12.124163, "relative_strength": 5.774219, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.676679, "energy": 30.143024, "activity_lines": [ 13.94804, 14.00353, 13.919544, 13.727116 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "close": 14.176474, "volume": 232063, "typical_volume": 150063.1, "trend": 13.474413, "fair_value": 12.141266, "relative_strength": 7.798852, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.312156, "energy": 39.438077, "activity_lines": [ 14.020951, 14.036549, 13.956863, 13.7751 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "close": 14.29, "volume": 638332, "typical_volume": 162964.45, "trend": 13.524223, "fair_value": 12.159024, "relative_strength": 8.184055, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.776089, "energy": 54.177348, "activity_lines": [ 14.119939, 14.083727, 14.00005, 13.827719 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }