{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ac7ace4-ab39-4ce8-ace5-0c7c5e83353a", "symbol": "IHG", "name": "InterContinental Hotels Group PLC ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.038, "architecture_energy": 28.833, "architecture_maturity": 63.854, "architecture_confidence": 85.89, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.39, "rotation_up": 19.75, "upward_expansion": 55.18, "deceleration": 93.98, "rotation_down": 33.79, "downward_expansion": 21.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 159.092, 162.403273, 159.575452, 154.421784 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 157.51, "trend_reference": 148.499093, "distance_from_trend": 0.06068, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 114.203416, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.379206, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.98851, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.097229, "excess_performance": -0.028396, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06068, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070332, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.379206, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027403, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.009885, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031002, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.097229, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.315215, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1318115, "relative_activity": 1.139651, "balance": 1.315215, "dry_up": 1.146951, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044703, "annualized_volatility": 0.218155, "from_high_reference": -0.104497, "from_low_reference": 0.373864 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 148.499093, "fair_value_reference": 114.203416, "structural_low": 125.493263, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.034774, "positive_rate": 0.9, "directional_follow_through": 0.9, "median_excess_return": 0.008728, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.170684, "worst_return": -0.074177, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.051416, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.018342, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.330176, "worst_return": -0.190117, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.175786, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.01254, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.370868, "worst_return": -0.066354, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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142.543392, "fair_value": 109.983743, "relative_strength": 15.919889, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.265231, "energy": 93.414065, "activity_lines": [ 164.858667, 158.614364, 150.097352, 146.500675 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 172.85, "volume": 1244610, "typical_volume": 1226366.6, "trend": 143.871842, "fair_value": 110.66081, "relative_strength": 19.443036, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.969643, "energy": 92.402704, "activity_lines": [ 168.591333, 161.995636, 152.740958, 148.45594 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 169.93, "volume": 876720, "typical_volume": 1191197.5, "trend": 145.123113, "fair_value": 111.331087, "relative_strength": 14.521784, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.808665, "energy": 86.586772, "activity_lines": [ 170.033333, 164.373273, 154.966957, 150.137111 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 165.01, "volume": 1355051, "typical_volume": 1202373.8, "trend": 146.041883, "fair_value": 111.955756, "relative_strength": 9.436226, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.889674, "energy": 78.058723, "activity_lines": [ 168.832, 165.426364, 156.604913, 151.420136 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 158.08, "volume": 1369337, "typical_volume": 1160100.4, "trend": 146.591549, "fair_value": 112.521872, "relative_strength": 6.212693, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.341403, "energy": 54.00829, "activity_lines": [ 165.13, 164.818182, 157.478709, 152.196789 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 156.18, "volume": 981025, "typical_volume": 1120088.8, "trend": 147.05938, "fair_value": 113.063575, "relative_strength": 5.290549, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.833698, "energy": 33.284835, "activity_lines": [ 161.397333, 163.710727, 158.075046, 152.815399 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 162.28, "volume": 1637753, "typical_volume": 1134810.95, "trend": 147.831644, "fair_value": 113.662058, "relative_strength": 7.872782, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.853502, "energy": 27.420024, "activity_lines": [ 160.687333, 163.574182, 159.134575, 153.797374 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 157.51, "volume": 1318115, "typical_volume": 1156595.0, "trend": 148.499093, "fair_value": 114.203416, "relative_strength": 0.98851, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.03777, "energy": 28.832887, "activity_lines": [ 159.092, 162.403273, 159.575452, 154.421784 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }