{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ac90a71-a8b9-4925-b663-8828dadbb9cc", "symbol": "603897", "name": "Zhejiang grandwall electric science&technology co.,ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.032, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -39.969, "architecture_energy": 72.796, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 68.948, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.86, "rotation_up": 16.74, "upward_expansion": 26.05, "deceleration": 43.25, "rotation_down": 73.98, "downward_expansion": 67.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.048, 27.938909, 35.178905, 36.051955 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 26.51, "trend_reference": 35.440996, "distance_from_trend": -0.251996, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.724993, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.166557, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.739975, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.025135, "excess_performance": 0.068339, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.251996, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048147, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.166557, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.476838, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1474, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.945186, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.025135, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.68879, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34868997, "relative_activity": 0.816241, "balance": 0.68879, "dry_up": 0.8815, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.213389, "annualized_volatility": 0.850362, "from_high_reference": -0.55075, "from_low_reference": 0.281295 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.440996, "fair_value_reference": 22.724993, "structural_low": 20.690001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.051582, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.04571, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.189632, "worst_return": -0.173043, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.114454, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.114742, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.386483, "worst_return": -0.423404, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.03241, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.021319, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.213509, "worst_return": -0.164227, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.30714, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076202, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.113258, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072416, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041274, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015831, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": 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31.23663, 37.757428, 37.341869 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.5, "volume": 36115223, "typical_volume": 46663082.0, "trend": 35.463996, "fair_value": 22.652529, "relative_strength": -18.987695, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.170121, "energy": 75.20801, "activity_lines": [ 25.128, 29.12186, 36.355381, 36.629632 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.51, "volume": 34868997, "typical_volume": 42719009.65, "trend": 35.440996, "fair_value": 22.724993, "relative_strength": -14.739975, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.969193, "energy": 72.796269, "activity_lines": [ 25.048, 27.938909, 35.178905, 36.051955 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }