{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6acca5f4-7acc-4ffc-bc4a-364929a04c3a", "symbol": "HGEA", "name": "hGears AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.263, "architecture_energy": 64.22, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.4, "rotation_up": 23.92, "upward_expansion": 11.74, "deceleration": 57.58, "rotation_down": 59.86, "downward_expansion": 85.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.807, 0.825182, 0.868619, 0.925333 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.815, "trend_reference": 1.042167, "distance_from_trend": -0.217975, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.026154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.59776, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.829578, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.387218, "excess_performance": -0.451858, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.217975, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17354, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.59776, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014335, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.428296, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074246, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.387218, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.277144, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 316, "relative_activity": 0.028003, "balance": 0.277144, "dry_up": 0.642344, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067485, "annualized_volatility": 0.288205, "from_high_reference": -0.639381, "from_low_reference": 0.101351 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.042167, "fair_value_reference": 2.026154, "structural_low": 0.74, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.068421, "positive_rate": 0.314286, "directional_follow_through": 0.685714, "median_excess_return": -0.050215, "regime_survival": 0.914286, "best_return": 0.536364, "worst_return": -0.232704, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.185455, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.207836, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.409091, "worst_return": -0.39322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.122024, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.22123, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.286364, "worst_return": -0.627119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.204545, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.409986, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.114286, "worst_return": -0.672619, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.135484, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026415, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.203846, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.088339, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.309091, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.109974, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.085271, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064615, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058065, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.8, "volume": 4642, "typical_volume": 15534.65, "trend": 1.092, "fair_value": 2.069327, "relative_strength": -42.907785, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.880358, "energy": 68.239668, "activity_lines": [ 0.822667, 0.846818, 0.891429, 0.960946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.79, "volume": 10182, "typical_volume": 13994.15, "trend": 1.065, "fair_value": 2.048109, "relative_strength": -43.948894, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.369716, "energy": 67.517793, "activity_lines": [ 0.808667, 0.832636, 0.878095, 0.941462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.815, "volume": 316, "typical_volume": 11284.45, "trend": 1.042167, "fair_value": 2.026154, "relative_strength": -42.829578, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.262541, "energy": 64.219945, "activity_lines": [ 0.807, 0.825182, 0.868619, 0.925333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }