{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6acfde83-65d8-41a9-8675-fadf61c8a205", "symbol": "KWG", "name": "KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.567, "architecture_energy": 52.631, "architecture_maturity": 17.389, "architecture_confidence": 74.996, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.9, "rotation_up": 63.62, "upward_expansion": 77.0, "deceleration": 60.06, "rotation_down": 15.18, "downward_expansion": 6.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.912667, 1.888, 1.836714, 1.812774 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.04, "trend_reference": 1.797, "distance_from_trend": 0.135225, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.680385, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.214008, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.522927, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.108696, "excess_performance": 0.044056, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.135225, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015063, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.214008, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.179549, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.025229, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094262, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.108696, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.290558, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 126158, "relative_activity": 7.248814, "balance": 7.290558, "dry_up": 1.97267, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044495, "annualized_volatility": 0.228401, "from_high_reference": -0.046729, "from_low_reference": 0.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.797, "fair_value_reference": 1.680385, "structural_low": 1.53, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.038095, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.266667, "median_excess_return": -0.041996, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.225806, "worst_return": -0.133663, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.037495, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.031057, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.154839, "worst_return": -0.18617, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.056701, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.014568, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.251613, "worst_return": -0.120192, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"direction": 28.813475, "energy": 46.382812, "activity_lines": [ 1.836667, 1.796182, 1.769952, 1.773333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.87, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 11857.45, "trend": 1.782, "fair_value": 1.675769, "relative_strength": -4.671426, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.719511, "energy": 61.268873, "activity_lines": [ 1.856667, 1.813636, 1.780048, 1.779183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.87, "volume": 3687, "typical_volume": 11807.55, "trend": 1.786333, "fair_value": 1.676859, "relative_strength": -1.93167, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.64261, "energy": 60.64033, "activity_lines": [ 1.867333, 1.828909, 1.78981, 1.78486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.86, "volume": 712, "typical_volume": 11627.25, "trend": 1.788667, "fair_value": 1.677821, "relative_strength": -1.415146, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.405736, "energy": 63.815295, "activity_lines": [ 1.866, 1.840364, 1.798429, 1.789613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.86, "volume": 6022, "typical_volume": 11339.05, "trend": 1.790333, "fair_value": 1.679103, "relative_strength": -2.319527, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.011913, "energy": 49.960003, "activity_lines": [ 1.864667, 1.849455, 1.807, 1.794215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.83, "volume": 4437, "typical_volume": 11465.95, "trend": 1.792, "fair_value": 1.679103, "relative_strength": -5.630777, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.438472, "energy": 33.537604, "activity_lines": [ 1.852, 1.850545, 1.812095, 1.796774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.04, "volume": 126158, "typical_volume": 17403.95, "trend": 1.797, "fair_value": 1.680385, "relative_strength": 2.522927, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.56658, "energy": 52.630533, "activity_lines": [ 1.912667, 1.888, 1.836714, 1.812774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }