{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ad601fc-c38e-43b9-b7ba-1e66496eb79c", "symbol": "COK", "name": "Cancom SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.165, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -14.301, "architecture_energy": 8.066, "architecture_maturity": 13.564, "architecture_confidence": 50.921, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.27, "rotation_up": 21.37, "upward_expansion": 20.3, "deceleration": 46.58, "rotation_down": 30.55, "downward_expansion": 53.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.156667, 23.975455, 24.366335, 24.335789 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 24.9, "trend_reference": 24.618206, "distance_from_trend": 0.011447, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.606364, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.027585, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.638403, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.004, "excess_performance": -0.178247, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011447, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02966, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.027585, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010313, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.186384, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022528, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.004, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.507126, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.507126, "dry_up": 1.109667, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058334, "annualized_volatility": 0.400682, "from_high_reference": -0.151618, "from_low_reference": 0.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.618206, "fair_value_reference": 25.606364, "structural_low": 20.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.055313, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.000906, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.228942, "worst_return": -0.093786, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.142055, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.018829, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.180705, "worst_return": 0.055313, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.03646, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.124514, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.179039, "worst_return": -0.056259, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.128049, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01845, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095841, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008734, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024695, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", 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"Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.214602, "energy": 30.725002, "activity_lines": [ 25.797585, 25.397053, 24.765475, 25.008089 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 23.75, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 95.5, "trend": 25.393206, "fair_value": 25.620959, "relative_strength": -25.450115, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.314722, "energy": 18.016198, "activity_lines": [ 25.132155, 25.150758, 24.686921, 24.900248 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 22.65, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 95.5, "trend": 25.259873, "fair_value": 25.600002, "relative_strength": -26.746982, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.816738, "energy": 32.698498, "activity_lines": [ 24.13248, 24.719919, 24.525987, 24.723267 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 24.4, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 53.5, "trend": 25.148206, "fair_value": 25.599249, "relative_strength": -22.282799, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.653836, "energy": 32.178449, "activity_lines": [ 23.953333, 24.65971, 24.54291, 24.667791 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.25, "volume": 427, "typical_volume": 74.85, "trend": 25.019873, "fair_value": 25.589086, "relative_strength": -24.247261, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.107193, "energy": 43.019206, "activity_lines": [ 23.588324, 24.371697, 24.443167, 24.545326 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.25, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 74.85, "trend": 24.874873, "fair_value": 25.584435, "relative_strength": -22.094862, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.156698, "energy": 56.761123, "activity_lines": [ 23.433333, 24.090251, 24.347709, 24.431141 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.9, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 74.85, "trend": 24.793206, "fair_value": 25.581434, "relative_strength": -20.380769, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.919511, "energy": 42.317501, "activity_lines": [ 23.58, 23.962406, 24.317251, 24.368246 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.1, "volume": 427, "typical_volume": 96.2, "trend": 24.709873, "fair_value": 25.593731, "relative_strength": -19.304297, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.360904, "energy": 28.242301, "activity_lines": [ 23.783333, 23.87704, 24.305602, 24.323523 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.9, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 96.2, "trend": 24.618206, "fair_value": 25.606364, "relative_strength": -18.638403, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.301004, "energy": 8.066261, "activity_lines": [ 24.156667, 23.975455, 24.366335, 24.335789 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }