{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ad63e05-fe81-40a3-b535-24bc2a1e8c79", "symbol": "WCO", "name": "WasteCo Group Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.838, "architecture_energy": 38.029, "architecture_maturity": 11.412, "architecture_confidence": 75.525, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.87, "rotation_up": 14.16, "upward_expansion": 14.36, "deceleration": 48.09, "rotation_down": 56.54, "downward_expansion": 71.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0072, 0.007673, 0.007605, 0.008049 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.008, "trend_reference": 0.009067, "distance_from_trend": -0.117647, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.029558, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.729343, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -36.237424, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.333333, "excess_performance": -0.361607, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.117647, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.213873, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.729343, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069181, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.362374, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.169542, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.333333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.635193, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2076109, "relative_activity": 0.966195, "balance": 2.635193, "dry_up": 0.826455, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.173077, "annualized_volatility": 1.063053, "from_high_reference": -0.578947, "from_low_reference": 0.6 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.009067, "fair_value_reference": 0.029558, "structural_low": 0.005, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 47, "median_return": -0.051724, "positive_rate": 0.212766, "directional_follow_through": 0.680851, "median_excess_return": -0.058625, "regime_survival": 0.893617, "best_return": 0.6, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.059701, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.07705, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.68, "worst_return": -0.461538, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.18, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.208307, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.52, "worst_return": -0.447368, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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0.007876, 0.008533 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.007, "volume": 1498928, "typical_volume": 2096248.45, "trend": 0.0095, "fair_value": 0.030301, "relative_strength": -45.79384, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.565812, "energy": 27.957816, "activity_lines": [ 0.007733, 0.007945, 0.007767, 0.008357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.006, "volume": 3018715, "typical_volume": 2116586.15, "trend": 0.009267, "fair_value": 0.029923, "relative_strength": -52.492001, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.312166, "energy": 52.620329, "activity_lines": [ 0.007, 0.007618, 0.007581, 0.008131 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.008, "volume": 2076109, "typical_volume": 2148746.5, "trend": 0.009067, "fair_value": 0.029558, "relative_strength": -36.237424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.837685, "energy": 38.02861, "activity_lines": [ 0.0072, 0.007673, 0.007605, 0.008049 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }