{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ad884ed-3fb1-459b-9ea4-cf334f3e0419", "symbol": "ESPY", "name": "L&G Cyber Security Innovation UCITS ETF USD Accumulating", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.445, "architecture_energy": 46.538, "architecture_maturity": 77.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.824, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.36, "rotation_up": 41.91, "upward_expansion": 70.35, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 27.85, "downward_expansion": 20.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.951333, 22.105091, 21.177438, 19.777093 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 22.635, "trend_reference": 17.948167, "distance_from_trend": 0.261132, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.197904, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.594249, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 18.171696, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.664094, "excess_performance": 0.493202, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.261132, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.163571, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.594249, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.203847, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.181717, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09435, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.664094, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.024659, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25674, "relative_activity": 2.247541, "balance": 3.024659, "dry_up": 1.420646, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056937, "annualized_volatility": 0.287636, "from_high_reference": -0.050744, "from_low_reference": 0.733951 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.948167, "fair_value_reference": 14.197904, "structural_low": 13.634, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.000979, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.018754, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.065093, "worst_return": -0.13595, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.045902, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.037235, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.073026, "worst_return": 0.034955, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.056141, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.011347, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.098525, "worst_return": 0.02979, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.279163, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.103564, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.582424, "worst_return": -0.024098, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000605, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.019977, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020061, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091026, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.141668, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000403, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046697, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027824, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006141, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028108, "active": false }, { "regime": 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20.634328, 18.573543, 17.410125 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 21.785, "volume": 1650, "typical_volume": 7694.2, "trend": 16.416867, "fair_value": 13.731224, "relative_strength": 21.521081, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.511994, "energy": 77.244429, "activity_lines": [ 21.865667, 21.040491, 19.025491, 17.772407 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 22.915001, "volume": 3365, "typical_volume": 7686.9, "trend": 16.682833, "fair_value": 13.815359, "relative_strength": 23.700811, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.280295, "energy": 73.53477, "activity_lines": [ 22.244, 21.554091, 19.546091, 18.191641 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.27, "volume": 27227, "typical_volume": 8952.9, "trend": 16.968633, "fair_value": 13.901058, "relative_strength": 25.590868, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.06545, "energy": 72.875585, "activity_lines": [ 22.631667, 22.024109, 20.057667, 18.616619 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.145, "volume": 16224, "typical_volume": 9566.1, "trend": 17.2202, "fair_value": 13.97691, "relative_strength": 20.838315, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.372628, "energy": 66.319445, "activity_lines": [ 22.555, 22.180309, 20.41991, 18.950579 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.545, "volume": 11754, "typical_volume": 9842.9, "trend": 17.4479, "fair_value": 14.048891, "relative_strength": 17.398653, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.192527, "energy": 63.972475, "activity_lines": [ 22.248667, 22.158637, 20.68651, 19.229598 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.975, "volume": 11261, "typical_volume": 10288.35, "trend": 17.675933, "fair_value": 14.116038, "relative_strength": 13.220544, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.003999, "energy": 50.913466, "activity_lines": [ 21.796333, 21.985091, 20.866981, 19.457153 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.635, "volume": 25674, "typical_volume": 11423.15, "trend": 17.948167, "fair_value": 14.197904, "relative_strength": 18.171696, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.445087, "energy": 46.537799, "activity_lines": [ 21.951333, 22.105091, 21.177438, 19.777093 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }