{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ad8be1d-a592-40dc-84cf-66c17ddaf6d5", "symbol": "600138", "name": "China Cyts Tours Holding Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.635, "architecture_energy": 53.066, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 65.914, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.63, "rotation_up": 27.79, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 41.97, "downward_expansion": 70.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.014667, 6.97478, 7.421366, 7.901026 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.03, "trend_reference": 8.543767, "distance_from_trend": -0.177178, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.949089, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.293403, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.493758, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.288462, "excess_performance": -0.245258, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.177178, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095356, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.293403, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147813, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.224938, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057359, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.288462, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.522242, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39895242, "relative_activity": 1.171685, "balance": 0.522242, "dry_up": 1.293755, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05958, "annualized_volatility": 0.205539, "from_high_reference": -0.344216, "from_low_reference": 0.07657 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.543767, "fair_value_reference": 9.949089, "structural_low": 6.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.000745, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005431, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.147153, "worst_return": -0.141046, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.030273, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.025884, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.125, "worst_return": -0.237325, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.023787, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.081511, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.501427, "worst_return": -0.250265, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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8.236788 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.78, "volume": 43962759, "typical_volume": 34623356.55, "trend": 8.733434, "fair_value": 10.019331, "relative_strength": -23.987052, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.050102, "energy": 68.022357, "activity_lines": [ 6.851333, 6.987886, 7.606062, 8.103749 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.2, "volume": 44964203, "typical_volume": 34387113.3, "trend": 8.638767, "fair_value": 9.984755, "relative_strength": -19.047783, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.152807, "energy": 61.504273, "activity_lines": [ 6.982, 6.989415, 7.516428, 8.004818 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.03, "volume": 39895242, "typical_volume": 34049459.45, "trend": 8.543767, "fair_value": 9.949089, "relative_strength": -22.493758, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.635095, "energy": 53.065727, "activity_lines": [ 7.014667, 6.97478, 7.421366, 7.901026 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }