{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ae1a626-335e-4ce3-8740-766a50178bb5", "symbol": "SMOG", "name": "VANECK ETF TR VANECK LOW CARBON ENERGY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.356, "architecture_energy": 47.191, "architecture_maturity": 7.135, "architecture_confidence": 78.006, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.05, "rotation_up": 15.65, "upward_expansion": 23.89, "deceleration": 51.58, "rotation_down": 66.76, "downward_expansion": 53.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 137.111533, 139.071969, 143.14035, 143.059929 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 140.2466, "trend_reference": 142.264297, "distance_from_trend": -0.014183, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 112.03002, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.251866, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.767936, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.004158, "excess_performance": -0.121466, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014183, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023741, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.251866, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151596, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077679, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155792, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.004158, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.517807, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3239, "relative_activity": 0.288602, "balance": 0.517807, "dry_up": 0.469926, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045749, "annualized_volatility": 0.20871, "from_high_reference": -0.108243, "from_low_reference": 0.243194 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 142.264297, "fair_value_reference": 112.03002, "structural_low": 129.42, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.09538, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.062955, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.008331, "worst_return": -0.117919, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.054877, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.018306, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.015987, "worst_return": -0.07336, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.093065, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.007245, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.076202, "worst_return": -0.17238, "sufficient": 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"volume": 34661, "typical_volume": 11043.2, "trend": 141.653765, "fair_value": 111.564723, "relative_strength": -5.070479, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.836034, "energy": 18.356622, "activity_lines": [ 142.642867, 145.12322, 146.089058, 144.431976 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 137.9868, "volume": 6099, "typical_volume": 11128.45, "trend": 141.880173, "fair_value": 111.674139, "relative_strength": -5.624228, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.2917, "energy": 33.714897, "activity_lines": [ 140.78966, 143.415904, 145.473238, 144.195398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 133.3016, "volume": 3240, "typical_volume": 11038.85, "trend": 141.917353, "fair_value": 111.740255, "relative_strength": -8.250766, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.358401, "energy": 56.816362, "activity_lines": [ 137.8696, 141.147951, 144.429557, 143.641941 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 134.6527, "volume": 8518, "typical_volume": 11199.45, "trend": 142.003143, "fair_value": 111.854896, "relative_strength": -8.330301, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.73213, "energy": 58.588963, "activity_lines": [ 136.36656, 139.444142, 143.516122, 143.173254 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 140.2466, "volume": 3239, "typical_volume": 11223.05, "trend": 142.264297, "fair_value": 112.03002, "relative_strength": -7.767936, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.356352, "energy": 47.191027, "activity_lines": [ 137.111533, 139.071969, 143.14035, 143.059929 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }