{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ae60bb6-1e2d-4ab5-af89-c06ed33f0f66", "symbol": "WTI2", "name": "Leverage Shares 2x Long WTI Oil ETP Securities", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.519, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 19.248, "architecture_energy": 20.076, "architecture_maturity": 34.081, "architecture_confidence": 72.242, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.29, "rotation_up": 49.53, "upward_expansion": 60.69, "deceleration": 68.04, "rotation_down": 15.72, "downward_expansion": 20.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.192667, 7.736818, 8.461381, 8.406656 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.39, "trend_reference": 7.703417, "distance_from_trend": -0.040685, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.192524, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.4232, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 16.38287, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.882803, "excess_performance": 0.831567, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.040685, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.241119, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.4232, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.692212, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.163829, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.873012, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.882803, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.499506, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2988, "relative_activity": 0.600187, "balance": 2.499506, "dry_up": 1.123743, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.211669, "annualized_volatility": 1.325428, "from_high_reference": -0.442685, "from_low_reference": 1.505085 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.703417, "fair_value_reference": 5.192524, "structural_low": 3.7025, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.021197, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.03935, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.062357, "worst_return": -0.168212, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.080687, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.141025, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.049391, "worst_return": -0.290395, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.122373, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.234552, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.09715, "worst_return": -0.174358, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.533846, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047199, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.173671, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.093153, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.127064, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.862941, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.009112, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.204868, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.509897, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.155429, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.34875, "volume": 20, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, 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"fair_value": 5.08922, "relative_strength": 1.820243, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -9.542171, "energy": 22.374913, "activity_lines": [ 7.620667, 8.902091, 9.139393, 8.211801 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 5.88, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7886.4, "trend": 6.903417, "fair_value": 5.09872, "relative_strength": -0.711488, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.768717, "energy": 40.659463, "activity_lines": [ 6.842333, 8.212364, 8.886393, 8.150962 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.315, "volume": 2741, "typical_volume": 7802.65, "trend": 7.008583, "fair_value": 5.109531, "relative_strength": 8.010897, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.060832, "energy": 55.418478, "activity_lines": [ 6.422, 7.681727, 8.664714, 8.113 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.01, "volume": 7878, "typical_volume": 8088.1, "trend": 7.173583, "fair_value": 5.131002, "relative_strength": 34.310662, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.028824, "energy": 50.745751, "activity_lines": [ 6.811667, 7.553909, 8.594214, 8.177608 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.535, "volume": 8766, "typical_volume": 6997.7, "trend": 7.38125, "fair_value": 5.158438, "relative_strength": 55.496235, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.939164, "energy": 19.969295, "activity_lines": [ 7.755667, 7.744818, 8.650952, 8.329957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.75, "volume": 2746, "typical_volume": 5079.15, "trend": 7.569917, "fair_value": 5.180289, "relative_strength": 39.392632, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.142918, "energy": 18.490558, "activity_lines": [ 8.295333, 7.839818, 8.620857, 8.418263 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.39, "volume": 2988, "typical_volume": 4978.45, "trend": 7.703417, "fair_value": 5.192524, "relative_strength": 16.38287, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.248143, "energy": 20.076067, "activity_lines": [ 8.192667, 7.736818, 8.461381, 8.406656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }