{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ae9c3a6-2e27-4666-acc2-4345c0a50e78", "symbol": "NOW", "name": "ServiceNow Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 39.896, "architecture_energy": 37.414, "architecture_maturity": 32.215, "architecture_confidence": 42.857, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.74, "rotation_up": 55.1, "upward_expansion": 53.88, "deceleration": 27.16, "rotation_down": 23.59, "downward_expansion": 16.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 111.99, 107.925091, 104.932524, 104.461161 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 124.88, "trend_reference": 106.038667, "distance_from_trend": 0.177684, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 155.197038, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.195345, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.98772, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.239627, "excess_performance": 0.114002, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.177684, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147367, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.195345, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.218527, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.179877, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.309791, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.239627, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.479353, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 102500493, "relative_activity": 0.798555, "balance": 1.479353, "dry_up": 0.996254, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127536, "annualized_volatility": 0.669171, "from_high_reference": -0.358689, "from_low_reference": 0.537174 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 106.038667, "fair_value_reference": 155.197038, "structural_low": 81.24, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.006383, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.024024, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.15941, "worst_return": -0.146416, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.039864, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.027662, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.326602, "worst_return": -0.284486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.095062, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.05885, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.398519, "worst_return": -0.313009, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.029862, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025322, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.695471, "worst_return": -0.490189, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.060626, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02848, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025169, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069335, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.238061, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.132266, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062154, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.441391, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040792, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.099382, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071168, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103293, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.338864, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.222516, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 108.3, "volume": 4419158, "typical_volume": 7051009.75, "trend": 99.6434, "fair_value": 102.781526, "relative_strength": 10.042987, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", 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"volume": 90130044, "typical_volume": 120205299.55, "trend": 109.647, "fair_value": 155.202372, "relative_strength": -32.356947, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.151807, "energy": 11.67052, "activity_lines": [ 103.848, 104.435636, 102.051143, 103.76243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 98.78, "volume": 161930100, "typical_volume": 123183862.9, "trend": 107.81, "fair_value": 155.105397, "relative_strength": -33.82, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.399028, "energy": 12.550051, "activity_lines": [ 102.731333, 103.362545, 101.702857, 103.061333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 111.23, "volume": 156946202, "typical_volume": 126530637.3, "trend": 106.602667, "fair_value": 155.111192, "relative_strength": -25.229786, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.088472, "energy": 5.446293, "activity_lines": [ 105.515333, 104.485636, 102.662, 103.281978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 124.88, "volume": 102500493, "typical_volume": 128357530.65, "trend": 106.038667, "fair_value": 155.197038, "relative_strength": -17.98772, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.8961, "energy": 37.41417, "activity_lines": [ 111.99, 107.925091, 104.932524, 104.461161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }