{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6aebfb71-9d39-488e-9256-16eed9b30fcc", "symbol": "2370", "name": "Middle East Specialized Cables Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.548, "architecture_energy": 39.277, "architecture_maturity": 39.863, "architecture_confidence": 77.992, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.99, "rotation_up": 49.13, "upward_expansion": 77.86, "deceleration": 66.32, "rotation_down": 24.46, "downward_expansion": 4.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.008, 31.713038, 31.433381, 29.877505 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 32.799999, "trend_reference": 27.652667, "distance_from_trend": 0.186142, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.919038, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.134201, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 21.309523, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.464286, "excess_performance": 0.496115, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.186142, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109013, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.134201, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078549, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.213095, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.15147, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.464286, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.948902, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1375939, "relative_activity": 0.670594, "balance": 1.948902, "dry_up": 1.099576, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078245, "annualized_volatility": 0.443393, "from_high_reference": -0.062857, "from_low_reference": 0.801208 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.652667, "fair_value_reference": 28.919038, "structural_low": 18.209999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.005748, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": 0.013509, "regime_survival": 0.68, "best_return": 0.241818, "worst_return": -0.156798, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.134051, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.162284, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.375272, "worst_return": -0.104158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.314286, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.295573, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.639434, "worst_return": -0.162722, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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45.850305, "energy": 35.191473, "activity_lines": [ 30.859806, 31.178728, 29.937238, 28.138667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 32.279999, "volume": 2185609, "typical_volume": 1912340.25, "trend": 26.322333, "fair_value": 28.502219, "relative_strength": 19.700724, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.276627, "energy": 36.267488, "activity_lines": [ 31.1938, 31.379274, 30.363048, 28.542559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.5, "volume": 4436485, "typical_volume": 2090614.3, "trend": 26.661, "fair_value": 28.608151, "relative_strength": 21.362314, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.997068, "energy": 41.256618, "activity_lines": [ 31.613664, 31.592581, 30.762286, 28.941118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.799999, "volume": 1762700, "typical_volume": 2060488.45, "trend": 26.990333, "fair_value": 28.708485, "relative_strength": 17.922441, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.82412, "energy": 38.923106, "activity_lines": [ 31.773228, 31.616007, 31.039476, 29.272667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.860001, "volume": 1449417, "typical_volume": 2015017.95, "trend": 27.294667, "fair_value": 28.806988, "relative_strength": 16.804331, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.900171, "energy": 36.583455, "activity_lines": [ 31.597333, 31.482452, 31.170714, 29.522323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.799999, "volume": 1375939, "typical_volume": 2051822.05, "trend": 27.652667, "fair_value": 28.919038, "relative_strength": 21.309523, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.547961, "energy": 39.277094, "activity_lines": [ 32.008, 31.713038, 31.433381, 29.877505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }