{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6aed7958-dbc5-4761-817f-646322cdeaae", "symbol": "RSPS", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR S&P 500 EQL WGT CONSUMER STAPLES ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 48.163, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 32.345, "architecture_energy": 25.523, "architecture_maturity": 13.793, "architecture_confidence": 50.52, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.94, "rotation_up": 52.92, "upward_expansion": 48.25, "deceleration": 37.67, "rotation_down": 22.98, "downward_expansion": 8.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.846987, 30.689967, 30.296477, 30.285751 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 31.1, "trend_reference": 30.44391, "distance_from_trend": 0.021551, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.60019, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.050669, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.370755, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.036206, "excess_performance": -0.16183, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021551, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017152, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.050669, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052311, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.073708, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042077, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.036206, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.557608, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 330698, "relative_activity": 0.836156, "balance": 1.557608, "dry_up": 1.067777, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033752, "annualized_volatility": 0.152337, "from_high_reference": -0.061044, "from_low_reference": 0.119472 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.44391, "fair_value_reference": 29.60019, "structural_low": 28.9, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.01682, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.000114, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.061404, "worst_return": -0.009376, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.018675, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.076068, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.032588, "worst_return": -0.037325, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.021384, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.089173, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.001609, "worst_return": -0.032595, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.85, "volume": 319448, "typical_volume": 392495.75, "trend": 30.268905, "fair_value": 29.609069, "relative_strength": -5.304837, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.742819, "energy": 35.546672, "activity_lines": [ 30.627298, 30.363417, 30.034226, 30.188052 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.502, "volume": 316121, "typical_volume": 376130.85, "trend": 30.318383, "fair_value": 29.601465, "relative_strength": -5.543064, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.287372, "energy": 29.731826, "activity_lines": [ 30.636667, 30.433967, 30.088559, 30.203091 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.8847, "volume": 722948, "typical_volume": 396424.5, "trend": 30.385085, "fair_value": 29.599574, "relative_strength": -5.113005, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.139929, "energy": 19.658437, "activity_lines": [ 30.7121, 30.552276, 30.183544, 30.239627 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.1, "volume": 330698, "typical_volume": 395498.15, "trend": 30.44391, "fair_value": 29.60019, "relative_strength": -7.370755, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.345056, "energy": 25.522765, "activity_lines": [ 30.846987, 30.689967, 30.296477, 30.285751 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }