{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6af67d42-19a9-4d55-8167-4786321c9e97", "symbol": "HRL-F53", "name": "Harel Index Funds Ltd. - Harel Sal (4A) DAX 30 Currency-Hedged", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.819, "architecture_energy": 62.767, "architecture_maturity": 97.0, "architecture_confidence": 57.748, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.17, "rotation_up": 27.99, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 46.74, "downward_expansion": 67.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 221.033333, 218.258182, 4658.477143, 8628.572473 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 226.4, "trend_reference": 13334.02, "distance_from_trend": -0.983021, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16666.670513, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.986416, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.790431, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989219, "excess_performance": -1.018119, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983021, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.34019, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.986416, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.205219, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.987904, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.762745, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989219, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.382454, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37030, "relative_activity": 2.069582, "balance": 1.382454, "dry_up": 2.663686, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.63594, "annualized_volatility": 6.359022, "from_high_reference": -0.989709, "from_low_reference": 0.087416 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13334.02, "fair_value_reference": 16666.670513, "structural_low": 208.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.014638, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.007744, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.114628, "worst_return": -0.990119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.007064, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.021729, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.085142, "worst_return": -0.98976, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.156093, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.01213, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.157701, "worst_return": -0.059655, "sufficient": false }, { 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"energy": 67.270455, "activity_lines": [ 215.453333, 596.06, 6690.010952, 10457.551183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 222.3, "volume": 49942, "typical_volume": 16780.95, "trend": 14050.473333, "fair_value": 16756.821795, "relative_strength": -98.841168, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.052462, "energy": 63.334205, "activity_lines": [ 217.806667, 216.261818, 5625.697143, 9520.448172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 226.4, "volume": 37030, "typical_volume": 17892.5, "trend": 13334.02, "fair_value": 16666.670513, "relative_strength": -98.790431, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.818517, "energy": 62.766847, "activity_lines": [ 221.033333, 218.258182, 4658.477143, 8628.572473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }