{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6af8de17-73c8-4d19-b709-45778fffd691", "symbol": "NXTG", "name": "Nextage Therapeutics Ltd", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.562, "architecture_energy": 37.407, "architecture_maturity": 98.678, "architecture_confidence": 95.522, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.53, "rotation_up": 20.86, "upward_expansion": 4.29, "deceleration": 49.36, "rotation_down": 54.42, "downward_expansion": 79.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.393467, 0.411109, 0.432462, 0.477871 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.39, "trend_reference": 0.554367, "distance_from_trend": -0.296494, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.690865, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.435491, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.711729, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.499358, "excess_performance": -0.528258, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.296494, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173574, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.435491, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074179, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.477117, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099043, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.499358, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.602228, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 279393, "relative_activity": 1.199585, "balance": 0.602228, "dry_up": 0.960636, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.275345, "annualized_volatility": 0.92546, "from_high_reference": -0.621359, "from_low_reference": 5.290323 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.554367, "fair_value_reference": 0.690865, "structural_low": 0.062, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.075151, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.722222, "median_excess_return": -0.09244, "regime_survival": 0.944444, "best_return": 1.305556, "worst_return": -0.275738, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.199812, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.245775, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.735219, "worst_return": -0.454418, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.354264, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.355176, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.936963, "worst_return": -0.541608, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06135, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.17192, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.165877, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02983, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.127742, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-09-13", 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-51.768555, "energy": 42.172574, "activity_lines": [ 0.417867, 0.439673, 0.459643, 0.515054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.393, "volume": 124335, "typical_volume": 208660.25, "trend": 0.580567, "fair_value": 0.694135, "relative_strength": -51.020324, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.754417, "energy": 39.540509, "activity_lines": [ 0.406267, 0.430855, 0.44939, 0.502123 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.382, "volume": 280542, "typical_volume": 222582.95, "trend": 0.567333, "fair_value": 0.692692, "relative_strength": -49.928903, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.618245, "energy": 38.349396, "activity_lines": [ 0.396733, 0.419455, 0.439929, 0.489312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.39, "volume": 279393, "typical_volume": 232908.1, "trend": 0.554367, "fair_value": 0.690865, "relative_strength": -47.711729, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.561591, "energy": 37.406701, "activity_lines": [ 0.393467, 0.411109, 0.432462, 0.477871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }