{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6afd5f74-6eb7-4069-a346-1b10c5027a2e", "symbol": "JEPG", "name": "JPM Global Equity Premium Income Active UCITS ETF - USD (dist)", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.551, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 59.675, "architecture_energy": 77.661, "architecture_maturity": 11.613, "architecture_confidence": 65.109, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.25, "rotation_up": 81.82, "upward_expansion": 68.83, "deceleration": 18.04, "rotation_down": 16.19, "downward_expansion": 24.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.176333, 20.90164, 20.586778, 20.565391 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 21.51, "trend_reference": 20.580621, "distance_from_trend": 0.045158, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.668978, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.04069, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.491121, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.039115, "excess_performance": -0.043769, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045158, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002484, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.04069, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084911, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.054911, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012392, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.039115, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.61626, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44196, "relative_activity": 2.715743, "balance": 2.61626, "dry_up": 1.57429, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017256, "annualized_volatility": 0.086117, "from_high_reference": -0.01058, "from_low_reference": 0.281914 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.580621, "fair_value_reference": 20.668978, "structural_low": 16.7796, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008443, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017211, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018918, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023244, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": 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reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.254833, "energy": 61.460815, "activity_lines": [ 20.834153, 20.589271, 20.414374, 20.466375 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.125, "volume": 28400, "typical_volume": 14948.35, "trend": 20.559121, "fair_value": 20.660891, "relative_strength": -6.164014, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.382216, "energy": 63.006927, "activity_lines": [ 20.967446, 20.718683, 20.482723, 20.504044 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.51, "volume": 44196, "typical_volume": 16274.0, "trend": 20.580621, "fair_value": 20.668978, "relative_strength": -5.491121, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 59.67509, "energy": 77.660963, "activity_lines": [ 21.176333, 20.90164, 20.586778, 20.565391 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }