{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6b06c637-bbcf-4741-b705-256df4882b5c", "symbol": "ESGE", "name": "BMO MSCI EAFE Selection Equity Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.893, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.823, "architecture_energy": 58.949, "architecture_maturity": 65.145, "architecture_confidence": 69.451, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.3, "rotation_up": 53.53, "upward_expansion": 83.18, "deceleration": 66.9, "rotation_down": 28.1, "downward_expansion": 9.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.14, 45.024247, 44.223287, 43.464042 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 45.740002, "trend_reference": 42.687293, "distance_from_trend": 0.071513, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.751677, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.279381, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.451301, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.084605, "excess_performance": -0.035817, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071513, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039202, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.279381, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045981, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014513, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026638, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.084605, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.876033, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5400, "relative_activity": 0.882353, "balance": 0.876033, "dry_up": 0.808824, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020307, "annualized_volatility": 0.173812, "from_high_reference": -0.007163, "from_low_reference": 0.226049 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.687293, "fair_value_reference": 35.751677, "structural_low": 38.520061, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.011358, "positive_rate": 0.575, "directional_follow_through": 0.575, "median_excess_return": -0.005231, "regime_survival": 0.825, "best_return": 0.068106, "worst_return": -0.105178, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.034895, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.015385, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.078845, "worst_return": -0.048318, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.09092, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.051382, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.111556, "worst_return": -0.129034, "sufficient": true }, { 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"close": 45.310001, "volume": 6400, "typical_volume": 7340.0, "trend": 42.070495, "fair_value": 35.345105, "relative_strength": 0.098667, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.256362, "energy": 88.23749, "activity_lines": [ 45.116195, 44.447738, 43.33289, 42.769109 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 44.790001, "volume": 7800, "typical_volume": 6960.0, "trend": 42.234341, "fair_value": 35.44471, "relative_strength": -0.828734, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.391064, "energy": 79.66009, "activity_lines": [ 45.057722, 44.616108, 43.558166, 42.944561 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.369999, "volume": 3700, "typical_volume": 6280.0, "trend": 42.38021, "fair_value": 35.54048, "relative_strength": -1.884657, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.998684, "energy": 63.690596, "activity_lines": [ 44.829734, 44.666761, 43.735619, 43.082345 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.099998, "volume": 2900, "typical_volume": 6250.0, "trend": 42.543484, "fair_value": 35.644478, "relative_strength": 0.223974, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.074521, "energy": 54.234244, "activity_lines": [ 44.893999, 44.805567, 43.962132, 43.257815 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.740002, "volume": 5400, "typical_volume": 6120.0, "trend": 42.687293, "fair_value": 35.751677, "relative_strength": -1.451301, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.822748, "energy": 58.94923, "activity_lines": [ 45.14, 45.024247, 44.223287, 43.464042 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }