{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6b0794be-1fca-4ab5-95db-1437512822a2", "symbol": "002480", "name": "Chengdu Xinzhu Road&Bridge Machinery Co.,LTD", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.631, "architecture_energy": 37.322, "architecture_maturity": 56.478, "architecture_confidence": 58.671, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.0, "rotation_up": 24.47, "upward_expansion": 16.71, "deceleration": 66.47, "rotation_down": 43.2, "downward_expansion": 66.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.326667, 5.314364, 5.605714, 5.790667 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.54, "trend_reference": 5.998, "distance_from_trend": -0.076359, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.212628, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.062804, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.468627, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.087315, "excess_performance": -0.094714, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.076359, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054689, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.062804, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.243687, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.154686, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010875, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.087315, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.940721, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61472200, "relative_activity": 1.177948, "balance": 0.940721, "dry_up": 0.97843, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075535, "annualized_volatility": 0.290664, "from_high_reference": -0.289744, "from_low_reference": 0.12831 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.998, "fair_value_reference": 5.212628, "structural_low": 4.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.00807, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": -0.004, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.37037, "worst_return": -0.138122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.022727, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.03827, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.638436, "worst_return": -0.176944, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.065825, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.050301, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.7557, "worst_return": -0.184887, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 65450006.65, "trend": 6.091333, "fair_value": 5.200385, "relative_strength": -20.138496, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.834241, "energy": 81.102528, "activity_lines": [ 5.180667, 5.419636, 5.770857, 5.927505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.23, "volume": 58124601, "typical_volume": 63589926.9, "trend": 6.059, "fair_value": 5.203718, "relative_strength": -18.783734, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.197801, "energy": 71.120837, "activity_lines": [ 5.170667, 5.344364, 5.697905, 5.871935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.28, "volume": 31339233, "typical_volume": 53962852.15, "trend": 6.020667, "fair_value": 5.207244, "relative_strength": -16.062461, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.770903, "energy": 53.739889, "activity_lines": [ 5.208, 5.297091, 5.63581, 5.821677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.54, "volume": 61472200, "typical_volume": 52185823.35, "trend": 5.998, "fair_value": 5.212628, "relative_strength": -15.468627, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.631234, "energy": 37.321942, "activity_lines": [ 5.326667, 5.314364, 5.605714, 5.790667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }