{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6b0fdb19-f3ec-4ac3-8fdd-05ce5da96aae", "symbol": "ALIMP", "name": "Implanet S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.888, "architecture_energy": 39.76, "architecture_maturity": 53.085, "architecture_confidence": 87.856, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.53, "rotation_up": 24.61, "upward_expansion": 5.31, "deceleration": 57.52, "rotation_down": 48.51, "downward_expansion": 78.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.172107, 0.17328, 0.180548, 0.188482 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.1788, "trend_reference": 0.200397, "distance_from_trend": -0.10777, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.138725, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.288877, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.834637, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.225974, "excess_performance": -0.279285, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.10777, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046865, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.288877, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044607, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.238346, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12993, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.225974, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.158749, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 119745, "relative_activity": 0.37384, "balance": 1.158749, "dry_up": 0.520972, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094046, "annualized_volatility": 0.333311, "from_high_reference": -0.602667, "from_low_reference": 0.153548 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.200397, "fair_value_reference": 0.138725, "structural_low": 0.155, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.061372, "positive_rate": 0.225806, "directional_follow_through": 0.774194, "median_excess_return": -0.056706, "regime_survival": 0.903226, "best_return": 0.551487, "worst_return": -0.547297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.102877, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.146782, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 3.284314, "worst_return": -0.668, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.40339, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.239064, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 3.201923, "worst_return": -0.603785, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020661, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.122363, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.014423, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.146154, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.588235, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", 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"fair_value": 0.138397, "relative_strength": -23.951568, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.896912, "energy": 69.326655, "activity_lines": [ 0.17188, 0.177538, 0.186563, 0.194663 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.1712, "volume": 123948, "typical_volume": 347455.2, "trend": 0.203737, "fair_value": 0.138416, "relative_strength": -24.309662, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.083007, "energy": 57.22914, "activity_lines": [ 0.17108, 0.175611, 0.184273, 0.192502 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.165, "volume": 167706, "typical_volume": 333109.4, "trend": 0.20237, "fair_value": 0.138513, "relative_strength": -28.091407, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.181922, "energy": 49.318951, "activity_lines": [ 0.169133, 0.172975, 0.181625, 0.190003 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1788, "volume": 119745, "typical_volume": 320311.1, "trend": 0.200397, "fair_value": 0.138725, "relative_strength": -23.834637, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.887547, "energy": 39.759548, "activity_lines": [ 0.172107, 0.17328, 0.180548, 0.188482 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }