{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6b111f06-9dfb-41ab-9ad8-63f0dff12ea9", "symbol": "AEMD", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi Core MSCI Emerging Markets UCITS ETF EUR Distribution", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 72.162, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.064, "architecture_energy": 25.237, "architecture_maturity": 65.481, "architecture_confidence": 78.852, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.63, "rotation_up": 18.37, "upward_expansion": 52.77, "deceleration": 93.99, "rotation_down": 35.75, "downward_expansion": 18.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 72.558667, 73.714546, 73.387572, 71.633957 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 73.269997, "trend_reference": 69.384, "distance_from_trend": 0.056007, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 57.214661, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.280616, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.066857, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.131583, "excess_performance": -0.039309, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056007, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077847, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.280616, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060083, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020669, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120963, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.131583, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.727, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7249, "relative_activity": 1.779332, "balance": 0.727, "dry_up": 1.683787, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041091, "annualized_volatility": 0.227964, "from_high_reference": -0.072297, "from_low_reference": 0.370542 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 69.384, "fair_value_reference": 57.214661, "structural_low": 60.619999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.130016, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.03142, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.130016, "worst_return": 0.130016, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.239152, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.057359, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.239152, "worst_return": 0.239152, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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4182, "typical_volume": 4083.0, "trend": 68.21, "fair_value": 56.76617, "relative_strength": -1.235672, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.313436, "energy": 38.625185, "activity_lines": [ 74.502668, 74.907819, 72.895095, 70.89357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 72.389999, "volume": 7284, "typical_volume": 4242.2, "trend": 68.669334, "fair_value": 56.917858, "relative_strength": 0.49729, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.237078, "energy": 24.271464, "activity_lines": [ 73.460668, 74.496728, 73.093048, 71.163248 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 71.730003, "volume": 8724, "typical_volume": 4364.1, "trend": 69.034667, "fair_value": 57.060283, "relative_strength": -1.172507, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.256878, "energy": 24.796905, "activity_lines": [ 72.612002, 73.955274, 73.186381, 71.36071 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 73.269997, "volume": 7249, "typical_volume": 4074.0, "trend": 69.384, "fair_value": 57.214661, "relative_strength": -2.066857, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.064263, "energy": 25.237136, "activity_lines": [ 72.558667, 73.714546, 73.387572, 71.633957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }